Pope Leo XIV Warns AI Arms Race Fuels ‘Spiral of Annihilation

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Key Takeaways

Pope Leo XIV, speaking at Sapienza University of Rome on May 14, condemned “enormous” global military spending and warned that AI weapons investment risks a “spiral of annihilation,” citing a reported 14% rise in European defence spending in 2025.
The global AI-in-military market was valued at an estimated $9.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $19.29 billion by 2030, driven by government R&D spending and private investment from firms including Palantir and Anduril.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres and ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric-Egger have called for a legally binding treaty on autonomous weapons by 2026, but the US and Russia have opposed key UN resolutions, leaving the regulatory window, in the words of advocates, “rapidly shrinking.” Pope Leo XIV has issued one of the most direct warnings from any religious leader on AI-enabled warfare, telling an audience at Sapienza University of Rome that rising military spending and autonomous weapons are pushing humanity toward a “spiral of annihilation.” The address, delivered on May 14, came as international pressure for a binding treaty on autonomous weapons systems intensifies, and as major powers continue to resist it.

The Escalating AI Arms Race and Its Economic Drivers

Military AI is no longer a future concern, it is a present and rapidly expanding market. The global AI-in-military sector was valued at an estimated $9.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $19.29 billion by 2030, according to market analysts, driven by government research and development programmes and growing private investment. North America accounts for a significant share of that revenue.

Beyond traditional defence contractors, venture capital has moved aggressively into military and aerospace. Palantir, Anduril and SpaceXbacked by major Silicon Valley investors, have secured substantial government contracts for next-generation systems that incorporate AI, from real-time surveillance to automated drone navigation. That private investment is accelerating development, but it is also raising questions about transparency: some companies have faced scrutiny over how much human oversight is actually built into their weapon systems, and how much autonomy these platforms exercise in practice.

The Peril of Autonomous Weapons and Calls for Human Control

At the centre of the “spiral of annihilation” warning is a specific and well-documented concern: AI-powered weapons that can select and engage targets without meaningful human intervention. Ethicists, legal scholars and humanitarian organisations have long argued that such systems displace human judgment from life-and-death decisions in ways that cannot be reconciled with existing international humanitarian law. The risks go beyond the philosophical. Critics point to the lowered threshold for initiating conflict when human casualties on the attacking side are reduced, the potential for AI failures to trigger accidental escalation, and the near-impossibility of assigning legal accountability when a machine makes the lethal call.

International pressure for regulation has been building. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric-Egger have both called for a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapons to be negotiated by 2026. The UN General Assembly reinforced that push in November 2025, when 156 states supported a resolution urging the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons to finalise elements for a future negotiating instrument.

The breadth of that support, however, has not translated into momentum at the negotiating table. The United States and Russia have opposed key UN resolutions aimed at increasing scrutiny of military AI applications, and both have resisted a binding international framework. That opposition matters: without the major AI-capable military powers at the table, any treaty risks being a statement of intent rather than an enforceable constraint. As the ICRC and others have noted, the window for effective international control is, by their own assessment, rapidly shrinking.

Pope Leo XIV’s intervention adds significant moral weight to a debate that has so far been dominated by legal and strategic arguments. Whether that translates into political movement, particularly among the powers most resistant to binding rules, remains the central question. For more coverage of AI policy and regulation, visit our AI Policy & Regulation section.

Originally published at https://autonainews.com/pope-leo-xiv-warns-ai-arms-race-fuels-spiral-of-annihilation/