lol - I had a day-long argument with an ex-girlfriend about this. She insisted that it was a 1 in 2 chance of making the right choice after one door is opened and I was adamant it was 2 in 3. For once I was right :)
Anyway - it's a really good example of how people's intuition around statistics can be completely wrong. Same as the fact that one roll of a dice is never going to affect the outcome of the next...
lol - I had a day-long argument with an ex-girlfriend about this. She insisted that it was a 1 in 2 chance of making the right choice after one door is opened and I was adamant it was 2 in 3. For once I was right :)
Anyway - it's a really good example of how people's intuition around statistics can be completely wrong. Same as the fact that one roll of a dice is never going to affect the outcome of the next...
Thank you. You can use my blog post as part of your explanation next time you see her. :D