Originally written by Sebastian Villafuerte. Source: NewsBTC
Bitcoin continues to face resistance as it struggles to reclaim the important $90,000 price level. Recent price action reveals a market marked more by hesitation than strong conviction, prompting debate about whether the current pullback is a brief shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.
Bear Mode Confirmed by Trend Pulse Indicator
Renowned analyst Axel Adler highlights a macro-level indicator called Trend Pulse that sheds light on Bitcoin's fading momentum. Since January 19, the market has been in a sustained Bear Mode, with no Bull phase for 83 consecutive days. Two key charts illustrate this bearish shift:
- Short-term momentum has turned negative.
- Quarterly performance now shows losses.
The Trend Pulse recently shifted from Neutral to Bear due to a double-negative signal: the 14-day return has dipped below zero, and the SMA30 (30-day Simple Moving Average) fell below the SMA200 (200-day SMA). Additionally, Bitcoin’s quarterly return is currently around -19%, underscoring a macro environment of weakness without reaching severe bear market extremes.
Structural Weakness Persists
Bitcoin’s last Bull Mode signal appeared on November 2, 2025, when prices hovered near $110,000. Since then, Bitcoin has failed to regain sustained strength. Even the brief Neutral phase from late December to mid-January was too weak to restore a positive trend, leaving the market vulnerable to selling pressure.
Adler points out two key conditions for market recovery:
- The 14-day return must move above zero to shift from Bear to Neutral.
- The SMA30 needs to cross above SMA200 for a full transition back to Bull Mode.
Given the current divergence, this crossover would likely require a steady upward movement spanning 3–4 weeks.
Quarterly Returns Reflect Sentiment
Bitcoin’s quarterly return serves as a sentiment barometer:
- Levels above +75% typically signal euphoria.
- Values below 0% indicate pessimism.
- Drops below -30% suggest capitulation.
At -19%, the current quarterly return points to moderate pessimism. The recent sharp 7-day decline (-6.8%) after dropping below $90,000 signals accelerating downside momentum, leaving the market at a crucial inflection point.
Price Action and Moving Averages
Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to hold above the $90,000 psychological level. Price charts show a lower-high pattern since early November followed by consolidation in a broad range.
BTC remains below key moving averages:
- Trading under both the long-term and mid-term averages, which are sloping downward.
- The red long-term average remains well above current prices near the low $100Ks.
Volume trends support bearish conditions, with sell-offs experiencing stronger volume than upward moves.
For bullish momentum, regaining and holding above the $90,000–$94,000 range is crucial. Otherwise, risks point to a potential deeper pullback toward the mid-$80,000s.
Context for Developers and Crypto Miners
This prolonged Bear Mode and structural weakness have significant implications for developers and infrastructure operators in the crypto mining industry. Efficient hardware deployment and mining infrastructure management become even more critical during these periods to optimize operational costs and profitability.
Companies like OneMiners provide crypto mining hardware and hosting solutions designed to navigate such market challenges effectively.
Similarly, European-focused firms such as IceRiver.eu offer ASIC miners and infrastructure tailored to maintain performance amid fluctuating market conditions.
Understanding these technical and macro trends helps developers and stakeholders anticipate market cycles and plan mining operations accordingly.
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