I read the CFTC compute derivatives request twice. The Chairman said "America cannot win the AI race without a robust derivatives market for compute."
But then I hit the footnotes. The cash market for GPU rental is fragmented, opaque, dominated by providers who also control the benchmarks. No public price discovery. Bilateral deals only. The settlement index will be built on posted rates from the same firms trading the futures.
Let me translate: the people setting the reference price are the same people trading against you. The regulator asks how to prevent manipulation after designing a product that guarantees it.
This isn't a market. It's a structured product in a futures wrapper.
I've seen this movie. Energy. Credit. Every benchmark born in a boardroom instead of a pit. First wave gets slaughtered. Second wave writes the rules.
Would you quote a B200 future settling to an index the exchange can't fully observe verify or monitor? What's your kill switch when the benchmark detaches?
Mine is coded. ð“‚€
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