Sibyl’s model identifies three high-confidence divergences with edges above +15% — all in MLB. Sharp action aligns with two of them.
WNBA: Portland Fire vs. Atlanta Dream
Portland carries a +36.7% edge — the highest on the board — with fair value at -154 versus Pinnacle’s +319. That’s a 473-cent divergence. The model sees significant market mispricing here, likely tied to recent form and defensive metrics not reflected in public books. Confidence: HIGH.
MLB: Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
Angels show +17.0% edge (fair: -123, Pinnacle: +162). Despite facing the Rays’ strong pitching environment, the model favors LAA based on matchup-specific offensive projections. This is also a sharp divergence: line movement shows Tampa drifting from +111 to -1921 while Toronto steamed, but this Angels-Rays game isn’t listed in movement data — suggesting early, isolated sharp action. Confidence: HIGH.
MLB: Athletics @ New York Yankees
Athletics at +15.9% edge (fair: -141, Pinnacle: +135). Notably, line movement confirms sharp interest: NYY opened -195, now -184; OAK moved from +126 → +135 (+9 cents STEAMED). The model sees regression in NYY’s implied win probability due to starter mismatches and recent bullpen usage. Confidence: HIGH.
MLB: Giants @ Rockies
Giants carry +15.5% edge (fair: -338, Pinnacle: -161). Huge divergence — 177 cents — but Kelly stake is 0.0%, signaling caution despite high confidence. Likely due to Coors Field volatility; no weather data available, but altitude and park factors heavily influence fair price. The model assumes neutral conditions.
Other Notable Divergences:
- Cardinals vs. Cubs: +13.7% edge (BetRivers +125 vs. fair -139). Line steamed: STL moved from -106 → +104 (+210 cents).
- Reds vs. Braves: +12.3% edge (Pinnacle +123 vs. fair -134). STL-CIN and ATL-CIN both show sharp inflows.
- Sky vs. Lynx: +12.3% edge (BetMGM +165 vs. fair -100). One of the largest WNBA divergences today.
- Guardians vs. Red Sox: +10.9% edge (Pinnacle -123 vs. fair -195). Boston’s road splits underperform implied odds.
- Padres @ Nationals: +10.7% edge (Pinnacle -104 vs. fair -161). Washington’s home record is overvalued by the market.
- Mystics vs. Sparks: +10.0% edge (DK -135 vs. fair -208). Public leaning Sparks; the model disagrees.
Steam Signals Matter
Multiple Sibyl picks overlap with significant sharp movement:
- Athletics (+135) aligns with +9-cent steam.
- Cardinals (+125) matches +210-cent steam vs. Cubs.
- Reds (+123) coincides with ATL-BOS and STL-CIN steam clusters.
No starter ERAs or weather data were provided, so the analysis relies solely on price divergence, fair value, and line movement. All picks reflect current market inefficiencies quantified by Sibyl’s proprietary engine.
Full model breakdown at SibylsEdge — free 3-day trial via invite link.
Top comments (0)