Why Did the Quarter-final vs Sweden End Like This? A Look at the Numbers
On 17th July, 2025, Sweden and England played in the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 quarter-final. The game ended 2–2 after extra time, and England won 3–2 on penalties. The defending champions were very close to going home, but something saved them.
What made the difference?
Let’s look at the data.
1. Key Match Stats (Quarter-final: Sweden vs England)
| Metric | England | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Shots | 18 | 14 |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.50 | 2.04 |
| Big Chances | 3 | 3 |
| Possession (%) | 60 | 40 |
| Passes (%) | 74 | 59 |
| Fouls | 18 | 15 |
| Tackles (%) | 48 | 53 |
| Clearances | 32 | 50 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 11 |
| Saves | 5 | 2 |
| xGOT Faced | 3.74 | 2.06 |
| Goals Prevented | 1.74 | 0.06 |
Source: Flashscore
1)Visual: Group Stage vs Quarter-final
Left: England (Group vs Quarter-final)
Right: Sweden (Group vs Quarter-final)
2. Key Points
1) Goalkeeper Saved England
- England’s goalkeeper made 5 saves and stopped 1.74 more goals than expected.
- Sweden’s goalkeeper made only 2 saves, close to expected.
2) England Controlled the Ball
- England had 60% possession and more shots, but fewer shots on target than Sweden.
- Sweden was very efficient: more of their shots hit the target.
3) Sweden Defended Hard
- Sweden made 50 clearances and 11 interceptions.
- England had more tackles and fouls, pressing higher.
3.How Did They Change from the Group Stage?
| Metric | England (Group) | England (QF) | Sweden (Group) | Sweden (QF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession (%) | 62 | 60 | 53 | 40 |
| Shots | 17.7 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
| Shots on Target | 6.3 | 4 | 5.7 | 7 |
| Big Chances | 5.7 | 3 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Saves | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Prevented | -0.05 | 1.74 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
What Does This Show?
- England: Goalkeeper performance improved a lot.
- Sweden: Lost possession and had fewer chances but stayed dangerous.
4. Goalkeeper Performance (Quarter-final Only)
Metrics: Saves • xGOT Faced • Goals Prevented
5. Why Did England Win?
| Factor | Advantage | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeping | England | +1.74 Goals Prevented; key penalty saves |
| Possession | England | 60% ball control kept Sweden deep |
| Shot Accuracy | Sweden | More on target, but not enough to win |
| Defensive Load | Sweden | Heavy defending, but tired late |
5. Final Takeaway
England did not win because they scored more in open play—they didn’t. They won because their goalkeeper played much better than expected and stayed strong in the penalty shootout.
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
Tools: Python, pandas, matplotlib
Data Source: Flashscore
Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/sweden_England_qf
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
Top comments (0)