Polymarket Odds Price 73% Probability on 25 bps increase Ahead of Benchmark Action

2026-11-02, FP360 — Prediction market Polymarket now assigns a 73% probability to a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December, with $483,394 in 24-hour volume validating the crowd's conviction. The pricing defies the Fed's recent dovish rhetoric and underscores a growing disconnect between market-implied odds and official communication.

The Signal: Prediction markets are flashing a hawkish signal that could force the Fed's hand, with 73% odds of a December hike suggesting traders are positioning for tighter policy.

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Originally published on FINPULSE 360