The New Rules of Power: How to Survive in a Divided World?

This article examines contemporary geopolitical challenges through the lens of Jack Watling's work. The author criticizes the bureaucratic pursuit of absolute cognitive certainty, which in a dynamic world leads to decision-making paralysis. Instead of waiting for indisputable evidence, states must learn to use strategic intelligence as a tool to actively influence their opponents' calculations. The text addresses the problem of geoeconomic fragmentation, where global trade links are fragmenting into competing blocs, forcing the development of institutional resilience. A key conclusion is the need to reassess Western cognitive habits and accept uncertainty as a natural element of governance. Only active players, capable of taking risks before obvious threats arise, have a chance of surviving in a fragmented world where time favors those who shape reality, not merely describe it.