You are planning a shop. Maybe the game is still in Early Access. Maybe it already has players and you are trying to guess what a skin, a coint pack, or a season pass should cost. And how many of your players will buy it, and what does that mean per person?
Here is what you will learn in this article:
- How to tell buy rate, ARPPU, and ARPU apart
- What skins, currency, loot, and battle passes actually cost in 2026
- How many of your players will buy in your shop
- First-year planning tables by genre, plus three worked examples
The genre tables later in this piece are conservative first-year, per-title estimates.
Newzoo put the global games market at $201.6 billion in 2025, up 9.1%, and past $200 billion for the first time. That is consumer spend on games and services, not hardware. On PC, microtransactions were 47% of PC revenue and grew 9.1% year over year. Console in-game spending went the other way, down 4.6% to $13.3 billion. Sensor Tower counted $81.75 billion in mobile game in-app purchases in 2025, up only 1.3%.
MIDiA Research found in its Q1 2024 consumer survey that cosmetic items now account for the majority of in-game spending, and that share is still rising. Players buy identity, not only power.
How to read every number in this article
Three metrics get mixed together in industry posts. If you mix them, your forecast is wrong.
| Metric | Formula | What it answers |
|---|---|---|
| Buy rate / conversion | Paying players / reachable players | How many people open their wallet |
| ARPPU | Revenue / paying players | How much a buyer spends |
| ARPU | Revenue / all players | How much an average player is worth |
The identity you must keep in your head:
ARPU = buy rate x ARPPU
Example: 4% of players buy skins, and those buyers spend $50 a year.
- ARPPU = $50
- ARPU = 0.04 x $50 = $2.00 per player
If you have 20,000 reachable players, first-year skin revenue is about $40,000, not 20,000 x $50.
A second trap is worse.
| Kind of "buy rate" | What it measures | Can you use it as a per-game forecast? |
|---|---|---|
| Lifetime ever-bought | Share of all players who have ever bought this in any game | No. Upper bound only. |
| Per-title conversion of actives | Share of your players who buy your shop in a year | Yes. This is the planning number. |
The Entertainment Software Association's 2026 Essential Facts report says 27% of US players aged 8+ have ever bought skins. That is not "27% of your Steam page will buy your $12 jacket." That is "more than a quarter of US players have bought a cosmetic somewhere, at some point."
For a new title, use the 1 to 5% one-off IAP and 8 to 20% battle pass bands from live-ops catalogs, then adjust by genre.
Takeaway: Do not plan as if 27% of your players will buy a skin. For a new game, expect about 1 to 5% to buy a one-off item, and about 8 to 20% to buy a battle pass.
The 2025 to 2026 market
Platform revenue
| Segment | 2025 figure | Year-over-year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global games market | $201.6B | +9.1% | Newzoo, Global Games Market Report, 2025 full year (2026 update) |
| Mobile | $113.3B | +10.7% | Newzoo |
| Console | $44.7B | +2.8% | Newzoo |
| PC | $43.6B | +12.0% | Newzoo |
| Console in-game spending | $13.3B | -4.6% | Newzoo |
| Console DLC | $2.1B | -23.4% | Newzoo |
| Mobile game IAP (store-tracked) | $81.75B | +1.3% | Sensor Tower, State of Mobile 2026 |
| Mobile game downloads | 50.41B | -7.2% | Sensor Tower |
| Hours played in mobile games | 444.63B | +0.9% | Sensor Tower |
| Share of mobile IAP from top 1% of publishers | 92.5% | n/a | Sensor Tower |
Newzoo's $113.3B mobile number and Sensor Tower's $81.75B IAP number measure different things. Sensor Tower is App Store plus Google Play in-app purchases. Newzoo is a wider consumer-spend view. Do not average them.
Newzoo credited PC microtransaction growth in part to Counter-Strike 2 and Roblox. It blamed the console in-game drop on weaker engagement in Fortnite and Call of Duty. Full-game spending still grew 25% across PC and console.
Takeaway: These billions are industry totals, not your forecast. Use them for context, then plan from the players who will actually find and try your game.
Who is buying
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US players 8+ who have ever bought in-game content | 58% | ESA 2026 Essential Facts, YouGov, n=13,545, 11 to 25 Feb 2026 |
| Gen Z / Millennial / Gen Alpha buyers, median monthly in-game spend | $20 | ESA 2026 |
| Parents who buy in-game content for their children | 54% | ESA 2026 |
| Of those parents, who require approval | 93% | ESA 2026 |
| PC microtransaction buyers who spend on cosmetics | 52% | WorldMetrics 2026 (secondary recap) |
| Mobile players who have made at least one microtransaction | 68% | WorldMetrics 2026 (secondary recap) |
Older players have more cash. ESA and a Cubix 2026 recap both note that the 44 to 59 group and the 50+ audience spend more per purchase and churn less. If your game is "for teens only," your ARPU will sit below these medians.
Takeaway: A teen-only audience will sit below these medians. If parents must approve a purchase, expect fewer impulse buys and a lower ARPU.
What players actually buy
ESA asked US players which types of in-game content they had ever purchased. Multiple answers were allowed, so rows overlap.
| Type of in-game content | Share of US players aged 8+ | Source |
|---|---|---|
| In-game currency | 34% | ESA 2026 Essential Facts |
| Skins or customization items | 27% | ESA 2026 |
| Expansion packs | 26% | ESA 2026 |
| Season pass / battle pass | 26% | ESA 2026 |
| Additional maps or levels | 19% | ESA 2026 |
| Randomized content packs | 15% | ESA 2026 |
Currency sits first because it is the payment method for everything else. In Fortnite and Call of Duty, buying V-Bucks or COD Points and buying the pass are often the same transaction. If you add both a currency pack and a battle pass to a forecast, do not add 34% + 26%.
Loot sits last. That matches the regulatory and trust story: EU odds rules, UK and Australian scrutiny, and player fatigue. If you still want chests, price them honestly and show the odds.
Game content (expansions, maps, story packs) is still a real line. It is not dead because battle passes exist. It is just a higher ticket and a lower purchase frequency. Game Developer covered the same US spend picture through Circana and ESA.
Takeaway: Do not add currency buyers and pass buyers together. They are often the same purchase. Sell skins and a pass first. Treat loot as optional. Expansions still work if the price matches the game.
What things actually cost
Cosmetics, currency, and loot
| Item | Typical price | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global average cosmetic purchase | $8.17 in 2025 | Up from $4.52 in 2020 | MarketIntelo, In-Game Apparel Market |
| Basic cosmetic | $0.99 | Entry SKU | MarketIntelo 2025 |
| Common psychological price points | $4.99, $9.99, $19.99 | Convert better than round numbers | MarketIntelo 2025 |
| Premium / legendary cosmetic | $30 to $50+ | Brand collabs and ultra tiers | MarketIntelo 2025 |
| Premium character skin (industry average) | about $15 | Directional | WorldMetrics 2026 (secondary recap) |
| Limited-time cosmetic premium vs permanent | +20 to 50% | Scarcity pricing | MarketIntelo 2025 |
| Regional discount vs US list | 40 to 60% in developing markets | Purchasing-power pricing | MarketIntelo 2025 |
| Currency packs | $4.99 / $9.99 / $19.99 / $49.99 / $99.99 | Larger packs have a better rate | Publisher store listings, 2025 to 2026 |
| Loot / chest ticket | $5 to $10 typical | Lowest ESA ever-bought share | ESA 2026 plus common store SKUs |
| Game content / expansion | $10 to $20 indie; $20 to $40 AAA DLC | Fewer purchases per year | Circana / ESA content mix, 2025 to 2026 |
Live-service cosmetic SKUs players already know
| Game | SKU | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant | Select Edition weapon skin | 875 VP, about $10 | Riot support / community conversion, 2026 |
| Valorant | Deluxe Edition | 1,275 VP, about $16 | Riot, 2026 |
| Valorant | Premium Edition | 1,775 VP, about $23 | Riot, 2026 |
| Valorant | Exclusive / Ultra | about $26 to $30+ per gun | Dexerto bundle guide; Riot "varies" |
| League of Legends | Standard / Epic skin | 975 to 1,350 RP, about $11 | Riot Points chart, 2026 |
| League of Legends | Legendary | 1,820 RP, about $22 | Riot, 2026 |
| League of Legends | Ultimate | 3,250 RP, about $35 | Riot, 2026 |
| Fortnite | Individual skins | typically $8 to $20 | Epic item shop, 2025 to 2026 |
These are AAA reference prices, not indie targets. Your first shop should sit near the $5 to $12 band unless the item is a full bundle or a story expansion. MarketIntelo's $8.17 average is the cleanest single number for "what does a cosmetic checkout look like in 2025."
Valorant Points in the US run about $0.0105 per VP on the smallest pack and $0.0091 on the largest. Players who buy the $99.99 pack get about 13% more points per dollar. If your economy only works when people buy the whale pack, the economy is wrong.
Takeaway: Price your first cosmetic between $5 and $12, and make it obvious in one screenshot. Valorant and League prices are AAA reference points, not indie targets.
Battle pass prices in 2026
The market converged on ten dollars. MWM's May 2026 catalog of US battle and season-pass products makes that obvious.
| Benchmark | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Apps running a battle / season pass | 754 (73% are games) | MWM, State of May 2026 |
| Game pass items in catalog | 977 | MWM |
| Median game battle pass | $9.99 | MWM |
| 25th percentile (entry) | $5.99 | MWM |
| Premium tail (top 10%) | $29.99 | MWM |
| Typical standard pass | $5 to $10 / season | MWM |
| Premium / deluxe pass | $15 to $25 | MWM |
| Tier-skip bundle | $5 to $15 | MWM |
| Annual / subscription pass | $30 to $60 / year | MWM, emerging |
| Typical season length | 4 to 12 weeks | MWM |
| Pass adoption in top live-service titles | about 85% | Cubix / Kevuru 2026 recaps |
| Pass adoption in top online multiplayer (2025) | about 73% | Dataintelo |
| Pass share of those titles' revenue | 22 to 35% | Dataintelo |
| Enrolled consumer spend per season (pass + extras) | about $31.50 | Dataintelo |
2026 live-service list prices
These are premium-currency prices, not always a clean dollar tag.
| Game | Premium pass | Season checked | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortnite | 800 V-Bucks ($8.99 cheapest pack after 19 Mar 2026) | From 19 Mar 2026 | Epic Games |
| Apex Legends | 950 Apex Coins | Season 30, from 4 Aug 2026 | EA / Respawn |
| Marvel Rivals | 990 Lattice | Season 9, Jul 2026 | NetEase |
| Valorant | 1,000 VP (about $9.99) | 2026 Act 2, from 18 Mar 2026 | Riot |
| Overwatch | 1,000 Overwatch Coins (about $10) | Season window Apr to Jun 2026 | Blizzard |
| Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 | 1,100 COD Points | Season 05, from 23 Jul 2026 | Activision |
Epic cut the Fortnite pass from 1,000 to 800 V-Bucks in March 2026, and cut the $8.99 pack from 1,000 to 800 V-Bucks on the same day. The dollar price did not fall. Completing the pass now returns 800 V-Bucks, enough for the next pass and no surplus. If you copy Fortnite's "the pass pays for itself" loop, budget that as retention, not extra revenue.
Deluxe bundles sit above the pass. Activision's Battle Pass Bundle with 20 tier skips is 2,400 COD Points. Blizzard's premium plus 20 skips is 2,200 coins. Apex sells Ultimate tiers for real money.
Casual and smaller games should start at $5.99, not $9.99. That is MWM's 25th percentile, and it is where puzzle, idle, and light seasonal games actually sit.
Takeaway: Price a full live-service pass at $9.99. Start at $5.99 if the game is casual or small. If the pass pays for the next pass, count that as retention, not extra revenue.
How many players pay
Industry bands
| Shop | Per-title conversion of actives | Lifetime ever-bought (US, any game) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-off IAP (a single skin, pack, or currency bundle) | 1 to 5% | Skins 27%, currency 34%, loot 15% | MWM 2026; ESA 2026 |
| First purchase after install (mobile) | 2 to 5% typical; 8 to 12% top mid-core | n/a | AppFollow 2026, compiling AppsFlyer / Sensor Tower / Newzoo |
| Battle pass | 8 to 20% of actives | 26% | MWM 2026; ESA 2026 |
| Well-timed battle pass in a top title | 15 to 20% | n/a | Cubix / Kevuru 2026 (secondary recaps) |
| Mobile multi-pass | 8 to 12% | n/a | Recited (secondary) |
| Console single-pass | 25 to 35% | n/a | Recited (secondary) |
Mobile IAP conversion by genre (US / Canada, 2026)
| Genre band | IAP conversion | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Hyper-casual | 0.5 to 2% | RewardingHub 2026 |
| Casual | 2 to 4% | RewardingHub 2026 |
| Mid-core | 3 to 6% | RewardingHub 2026 |
| RPG | 4 to 8% | RewardingHub 2026 |
| Casino (first purchase in 30 days) | 4.95% | AppsFlyer, App Monetization 2026 |
A battle pass converts better than a single skin because the pitch is "buy once, unlock the season by playing." MWM's catalog says pass holders also log in 30 to 60% more often. Cubix and Kevuru report pass owners are about 3x more likely to still be around after six months, and they make about 25% more secondary micro-purchases.
That last point is a warning. Deconstructor of Fun (2022) showed that a generous pass steals a la carte shop spend. If the pass already contains the only skins people wanted, your shop ARPU falls. In planning, if you run a pass and a shop, cut shop revenue by about 15%.
Takeaway: More players will buy a pass than a single skin. If you sell both, cut your shop forecast by about 15%, because the pass often includes the skins people wanted.
Revenue per person
These numbers are not all measuring the same window. Read the period column.
| Metric | Period | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casual IAP ARPPU | Day 90 | $7.26 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Mid-core IAP ARPPU | Day 90 | $9.80 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Casino IAP ARPPU | Day 90 | $11.40 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Casual IAP ARPU | Day 90 | $1.34 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Mid-core IAP ARPU | Day 90 | $2.13 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Casino IAP ARPU | Day 90 | $2.43 | AppsFlyer 2026 |
| Casual monthly ARPPU | Month | $10 to $30 | AppFollow 2026 compile |
| Mid-core monthly ARPPU | Month | $50 to $100 | AppFollow 2026 compile |
| Gacha / hardcore monthly ARPPU | Month | often $100+ | AppFollow 2026 |
| Mobile ARPPU | Month | about $12.30 | WorldMetrics 2026 (directional, secondary) |
| Free-to-play ARPU | Month | $7.20 | WorldMetrics 2026 (secondary) |
| US mobile player microtransaction spend | Month | $15.60 | WorldMetrics 2026 (secondary) |
| ESA buyer median in-game spend | Month | $20 | ESA 2026, younger generations |
| Top RPG / strategy paying user | Unspecified, tier-1 markets | $45+ | Cubix 2026 (secondary) |
| Mobile shooter annual ARPPU | Year | $45 to $120 | Dataintelo, Mobile Shooter, 2025 |
| Broader mobile annual ARPPU band | Year | $30 to $65 | Dataintelo 2025 |
| Console single-pass ARPPU | Season | $12 to $18 | Recited (secondary) |
| Mobile multi-pass ARPPU | Season | about $47 | Recited (secondary) |
| Pass + supplemental cosmetics | Season | about $31.50 | Dataintelo 2025 |
Day-90 ARPPU of $8 to $11 looks small next to "$50 to $100 a month." Both can be true. AppsFlyer is a short window across a huge install base. AppFollow's monthly band is what a healthy live mid-core title sees among payers in rich markets. For an indie PC forecast, annual ARPPU of $20 to $60 among shop buyers is the honest middle. $100+ a month is gacha and 4X, not a $12 Steam shooter skin.
Dataintelo's $31.50 per season is spend by people who already bought the pass, including extra cosmetics and skips. If your model already has a separate skins line, do not add $31.50 on top. Use pass price times paid seasons for the pass, and a smaller shop ARPPU for extras.
Takeaway: Do not mix Day-90 numbers with monthly or yearly numbers. For an indie PC shop, plan about $20 to $60 per year from each buyer, not $50 to $100 a month.
What each genre actually sells
Industry recaps in 2026 agree on the shape, even when they disagree on the exact dollar.
| Genre | Primary live-ops motion | What to sell first | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shooter / Action | Battle pass + cosmetics | Season pass, then weapon / operator skins | Cubix 2026; MWM 2026 |
| MOBA | Cosmetics and seasonal content | Skins, then a pass | Cubix 2026 |
| RPG | Collection + cosmetics | Characters, skins, currency; pass is secondary | Cubix / Kevuru 2026 |
| Strategy | Premium currency | Time / resource packs, then a mid-core pass | Cubix 2026; Sensor Tower 2026 |
| Sports | Seasonal leagues + packs | Currency, player packs, kits, a season pass | WorldMetrics sports MTX; ESA content mix |
| Casual / puzzle | Ads + cheap IAP | $5 to $6 cosmetics, $5.99 pass, rewarded ads | RewardingHub; Cubix |
| Adventure / story | Premium + DLC | Game content first, light cosmetics | Newzoo PC / console 2026 (sandbox vs story split) |
| Hyper-casual | Ads | Do not plan a $10 pass | Cubix 2026 (about 90% ads) |
Sensor Tower's 2026 State of Gaming note: strategy and puzzle led mobile growth in 2025. Strategy IAP was up 20%, puzzle up 14%. Strategy was the only mobile genre that grew revenue, downloads, and time together. On PC, action premium revenue on Steam was up 32%.
That does not mean every strategy indie prints money. It means the category is where spend is moving.
Takeaway: Match the shop to the genre. Action games sell a pass and skins. Adventure games sell DLC. Hyper-casual games should not plan a $10 pass.
Planning tables by genre
The tables below are first-year, per-title planning defaults for a reachable PC audience. They sit inside the research bands above. They are not Fortnite, Genshin, or Call of Duty Mobile.
How to use a row:
- Take your reachable players (the people who will actually find and try the game).
- Multiply by buy rate. That is your buyers.
- Multiply buyers by price x purchases per year. That is first-year revenue for that shop.
ARPU = buy rate x price x purchases per year
Purchases per year is how often a buyer comes back. A $10 pass bought 3.5 times is not $10 of revenue. It is $35 from that buyer.
Battle pass
| Genre | Default price | Buy rate | Paid seasons / year | ARPPU | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $9.99 | 16% | 3.5 | $35.0 | $5.59 |
| Adventure | $9.99 | 9% | 2.5 | $25.0 | $2.25 |
| Casual | $5.99 | 10% | 3.5 | $21.0 | $2.10 |
| Racing | $9.99 | 12% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $3.60 |
| Role Playing | $9.99 | 12% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $3.60 |
| Simulation | $7.99 | 10% | 2.8 | $22.4 | $2.24 |
| Sports | $9.99 | 14% | 3.5 | $35.0 | $4.90 |
| Strategy | $9.99 | 11% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $3.30 |
| Other | $9.99 | 12% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $3.60 |
Paid seasons are lower than calendar seasons. A game can run five seasons and still only collect 3.5 purchases from the average pass buyer. People skip a season.
Skins
| Genre | Default SKU | Buy rate | Purchases / year | ARPPU | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $12 | 3.2% | 2.5 | $30.0 | $0.96 |
| Adventure | $8 | 1.8% | 2.0 | $16.0 | $0.29 |
| Casual | $6 | 2.0% | 2.2 | $13.2 | $0.26 |
| Racing | $10 | 2.8% | 2.4 | $24.0 | $0.67 |
| Role Playing | $10 | 4.2% | 2.8 | $28.0 | $1.18 |
| Simulation | $8 | 2.5% | 2.3 | $18.4 | $0.46 |
| Sports | $12 | 3.5% | 2.6 | $31.2 | $1.09 |
| Strategy | $8 | 2.2% | 2.2 | $17.6 | $0.39 |
| Other | $8 | 2.5% | 2.4 | $19.2 | $0.48 |
Currency
| Genre | Default pack | Buy rate | Purchases / year | ARPPU | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $9.99 | 3.5% | 3.5 | $35.0 | $1.22 |
| Adventure | $9.99 | 2.0% | 2.5 | $25.0 | $0.50 |
| Casual | $4.99 | 2.5% | 3.0 | $15.0 | $0.37 |
| Racing | $9.99 | 2.5% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $0.75 |
| Role Playing | $9.99 | 4.5% | 3.8 | $38.0 | $1.71 |
| Simulation | $7.99 | 2.8% | 3.0 | $24.0 | $0.67 |
| Sports | $9.99 | 4.0% | 3.5 | $35.0 | $1.40 |
| Strategy | $9.99 | 4.0% | 4.0 | $40.0 | $1.60 |
| Other | $9.99 | 3.0% | 3.2 | $32.0 | $0.96 |
Currency converts a little more often than skins because it is the wallet, not the item. Strategy and RPG sit highest. That matches Cubix: strategy lives on premium currency.
Loot packs
| Genre | Default ticket | Buy rate | Purchases / year | ARPPU | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $7.99 | 1.5% | 2.5 | $20.0 | $0.30 |
| Adventure | $6.99 | 1.0% | 2.0 | $14.0 | $0.14 |
| Casual | $4.99 | 1.0% | 2.2 | $11.0 | $0.11 |
| Racing | $6.99 | 1.2% | 2.2 | $15.4 | $0.18 |
| Role Playing | $9.99 | 2.5% | 3.0 | $30.0 | $0.75 |
| Simulation | $5.99 | 1.2% | 2.0 | $12.0 | $0.14 |
| Sports | $7.99 | 2.0% | 2.8 | $22.4 | $0.45 |
| Strategy | $6.99 | 1.5% | 2.4 | $16.8 | $0.25 |
| Other | $6.99 | 1.2% | 2.2 | $15.4 | $0.18 |
RPG and sports are the only genres where loot still looks like a real line (gacha, card packs, Ultimate Team). Everywhere else, keep it small or skip it. ESA's 15% lifetime ever-bought rate is the ceiling, not the plan.
Game content (DLC, expansions, maps, story packs)
| Genre | Default price | Buy rate | Purchases / year | ARPPU | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $14.99 | 2.0% | 1.2 | $18.0 | $0.36 |
| Adventure | $19.99 | 3.0% | 1.3 | $26.0 | $0.78 |
| Casual | $9.99 | 1.0% | 1.1 | $11.0 | $0.11 |
| Racing | $12.99 | 1.8% | 1.2 | $15.6 | $0.28 |
| Role Playing | $19.99 | 3.5% | 1.4 | $28.0 | $0.98 |
| Simulation | $14.99 | 2.2% | 1.2 | $18.0 | $0.40 |
| Sports | $14.99 | 2.5% | 1.3 | $19.5 | $0.49 |
| Strategy | $14.99 | 2.0% | 1.2 | $18.0 | $0.36 |
| Other | $14.99 | 2.0% | 1.2 | $18.0 | $0.36 |
Adventure and RPG pay for expansions. Casual barely does. Do not put a $20 story pack behind a $5.99 hyper-casual loop.
Takeaway: Find your genre row. First-year revenue is reachable players times buy rate times (price times purchases per year). That is your shop, not Fortnite.
Three worked examples
Example A. Free-to-play multiplayer action game
Assume 50,000 reachable players in year one. You ship a $9.99 pass, $12 skins, and $9.99 currency. No loot.
| Shop | Buyers | Spend per buyer | Revenue | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battle pass | 8,000 (16%) | $35.0 | $279,720 | $5.59 |
| Skins | 1,600 (3.2%) | $30.0 | $48,000 | $0.96 |
| Currency | 1,750 (3.5%) | $35.0 | $61,163 | $1.22 |
| Shop after 15% pass overlap | n/a | n/a | $92,788 | $1.86 |
| Total live-ops | n/a | n/a | $372,508 | $7.45 |
Store fees are not in this table. Steam still takes its cut. So does the platform owner on console.
If the same game is single-player only, cut live-ops by about 30%. Identity cosmetics convert worse when nobody else can see them. Multiplayer can justify about a 15% lift.
Example B. Premium $25 adventure game plus DLC
The box price does the heavy lifting. Add a $19.99 expansion and a light $8 skin line.
On 20,000 reachable players:
| Line | Buy rate | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Game ($25, using your store conversion, not these live-ops rates) | your catalog model | catalog revenue |
| Game content | 3.0% x $19.99 x 1.3 | about $15,600 |
| Skins | 1.8% x $8 x 2.0 | about $5,760 |
Live-ops here is a bonus, not the business.
Example C. Casual game, $5.99 pass only
On 100,000 reachable players:
- Buyers: 10,000
- Spend: $5.99 x 3.5 = $20.97
- Revenue: about $209,700
- ARPU: $2.10
That is why casual studios still run passes. The ticket is small. The conversion is not.
Takeaway: In a free-to-play action game, the pass is most of the live-ops money. In a $25 adventure game, live-ops is a bonus. The box price is still the business.
Design notes that change the math
Price the pass at a visible discount. MarketIntelo says a $9.99 to $19.99 pass often looks like 30 to 40% off the a la carte value of the items inside. If the pass is not obviously cheaper than buying two skins, people will not convert at 8 to 20%.
Keep a free track. The free track fills lobbies and teaches the loop. The paid track is the product.
Keep seasons between 4 and 12 weeks. Shorter than four weeks feels like a chore. Longer than twelve loses the deadline. Most action games land near five seasons a year. Casual can run more, cheaper.
Do not put progression power in the shop if you sell a competitive game. Cosmetics are the majority of in-game spend because they do not break the match. Pay-to-win still prints money in 4X and some RPGs. It also prints reviews you cannot undo.
Loot is optional and politically expensive. ESA puts randomized packs last. If you ship them, disclose odds, cap child spend, and do not make the only good skin a chest exclusive.
A pass can eat your shop. Watch ARPPU after the first season. If high spenders drop, the pass is too generous. Deconstructor of Fun called this out in 2022. It is still true.
Currency is not content. A coin pack with nothing worth buying is a dead SKU. Currency ARPU only shows up if skins, passes, or content exist to sink it.
Takeaway: Make the pass look cheaper than two skins, keep a free track, and keep seasons between 4 and 12 weeks. Do not put power in a competitive shop.
Your takeaway
If you are shipping a live game in 2026, start with three prices:
- A $6 to $12 cosmetic people can understand in one screenshot.
- A $5.99 or $9.99 pass with a free track and a season short enough to finish.
- A currency pack only if something on that list is worth buying.
Then forecast with buy rate times spend per buyer. Do not use ESA's 27% as your conversion. That number is "have they ever bought a skin in any game." Your number is "will they buy your shop this year."
Here is the short version to keep:
- Split the metrics. Buy rate is how many players pay. ARPPU is how much a buyer spends. ARPU is those two multiplied. Never apply ARPPU to every player.
- Use 1 to 5% for a single item and 8 to 20% for a pass. Adjust down if the game is new or single-player.
- Price a cosmetic at $5 to $12. Price a pass at $5.99 (casual or small) or $9.99 (live action). Add coins only if there is something worth buying.
- If you run a pass and a shop, cut shop revenue by about 15%. The pass often includes the skins people wanted.
- Sell what the genre already buys. Action: pass and skins. Adventure: DLC. Casual: a cheap pass. Hyper-casual: ads, not a $10 pass.
If you want a first look at the potential for your game, put the genre, platform, and game type into the Market Insights calculator. It estimates where the game sits in the market and what audience that implies. Then come back to the tables above and run buy rate times spend per buyer on that audience.
Sources
- Entertainment Software Association, 2026 Essential Facts About the U.S. Video Game Industry. YouGov survey of 13,545 US respondents, 11 to 25 February 2026.
- ESA press release, 3 June 2026.
- Game Developer / Circana coverage of ESA 2026 spend.
- Newzoo, Year in review: 2025. Global Games Market Report quarterly update, June 2026, covering full-year 2025.
- Sensor Tower, State of Mobile 2026 and State of Gaming 2026. Mobile game IAP $81.75B; strategy / puzzle growth.
- MWM, Battle Pass: How It Works, 2026 Pricing Benchmarks and Design. State of May 2026 catalog.
- MarketIntelo, In-Game Apparel Market Research Report 2034. 2025 pricing section: $8.17 average cosmetic.
- MIDiA Research, The "why" and "what" behind in-game spending. August 2024. Q1 2024 survey in US, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Poland, Turkey, South Africa.
- AppsFlyer, The State of App Monetization, 2026 Edition. D90 IAP ARPU / ARPPU and conversion.
- AppFollow, Mobile Game KPIs: The 2026 Guide to Gaming Metrics.
- RewardingHub, Mobile Game Monetization Benchmarks by Genre 2026.
- Dataintelo, Online Microtransaction Market. Pass adoption, $31.50 per season, shooter ARPPU $45 to $120.
- Recited, Battle Passes and Season Passes. Mobile vs console conversion and ARPPU. Secondary playbook.
- Deconstructor of Fun, Battle Passes: Everything You Ought to Know and Then Some. 4 June 2022.
- WorldMetrics, Microtransactions In Video Games Statistics, 2026 Edition. 12 Feb 2026, verified 11 Jul 2026. Secondary recap.
- Epic Games, Fortnite V-Bucks Price Increase. 10 March 2026, effective 19 March 2026.
- Riot Games. Valorant skin tiers and Riot Points / VP pack prices, 2026. Publisher listings, no single stable public support URL.
- Cubix, Game Monetization Statistics 2026. 8 July 2026. Secondary recap, not a primary survey.
- Kevuru Games, Game Monetization Statistics: Data and Insights. Secondary recap of the 15 to 20% pass band.
- Xiao, Zhang, Mao. What Makes Loyalty Programme Work: The Effectiveness of the Battle Pass System in Chinese MOBA Game. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 172 (published 8 May 2025). Academic pass and loyalty framing, not Western ARPU.
Read more on my blog: www.guardingpearsoftware.com!
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