Why you need to know about the Lindy effect, as a developer.
Arnav Bansal Oct 15
Age affects living beings negatively. Younger organisms can be expected to outlast older ones.
But non-perishable things like ideas, music, and technology behave differently.
If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!
The longer technologies have survived, the longer they are likely to stay alive. This is called the Lindy effect.
If you're building something, especially if for the long term, the Lindy effect might be a good counterbalance to the urge of experimenting with new things.