I used to keep a tally on a sticky note. Reroll count on the left, hope on the right. By reroll 80 I was convinced the Kraken owed me one. It doesn't work like that, and once I actually looked at the numbers I understood why my sticky note was lying to me the whole time.
Every reroll forgets the last one
Kraken sits at 0.8% per reroll, pulled from the same weighted table as every other aura in the game. There's no hidden counter tracking your bad luck, no pity timer quietly filling up in the background. Each reroll is an independent event, which means your 200th attempt has exactly the same 0.8% shot as your 1st. The game has no memory of your streak, good or bad.
That's a hard thing to sit with when you're deep into a grind, because it means there's no light at the end of a specific tunnel. There's just the same coin flip, over and over, weighted against you.
What the average actually tells you
Run the math and you get roughly 125 rerolls to hit Kraken on average. That's an average, not a guarantee. Some players get it on reroll 12. Some are still going at reroll 600. If you want a number you can actually plan around, the 90% confidence threshold lands closer to 287 rerolls, meaning nine out of ten players will have it by then, and one out of ten is still grinding well past it.
For comparison, Solar Fin (the other Legendary) sits at 0.5% per reroll, about 1 in 200 on average, so it's the rarer of the two. Go for either Legendary and your combined odds jump to 1.3% per reroll, roughly 1 in 77. If you're chasing Leviathan instead, that's Mythic tier and roughly 4x rarer than Kraken, so budget your patience accordingly.
Where rerolls actually come from
Codes are the fastest source, tied to milestones like BAITAURA or CCU thresholds, and new ones tend to drop roughly every 500 likes on the game's social pages. Outside of codes, you're generating rerolls more slowly through normal play. Neither path changes the underlying odds. A code-farmed reroll and a grind-farmed reroll are worth exactly the same 0.8%.
I put the full breakdown, including the Solar Fin and Leviathan comparisons and how the reroll table is weighted, into a Kraken drop rate guide if you want the numbers without doing your own spreadsheet.
The honest downside
None of this makes the grind faster. Knowing the odds doesn't buy you a single extra percentage point, and there's a real chance you're the unlucky one out past 287 rerolls even after doing everything right. What it does buy you is knowing when to stop torturing yourself with a running tally that was never actually going somewhere. Track your reroll count if it helps you feel in control. Just don't expect reroll 300 to feel any different than reroll 1, because to the game, it doesn't.
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