One of the most salient features of our Tech Hiring culture is that there is so much bullshit. Everyone knows this. Each of us contributes his share. But we tend to take the situation for granted.
TLDR: the reason that Ridley can be a rational optimists is that we are all biological pessimists.
longer version:
I won't dispute that trade and specialization are one key to prosperity, we know this since at least Adam Smith.
or that big cities are a bit deal. We know this since at least antic Ron, if it's not the ancient dead cities of Mesopotamia.
But there is something I want to point out.
The reason we are not going to die all in 10 or 30 years is precisely because of our survival bias that makes us focus on what seems bad and dangerous.
Yes, that makes us unhappy, but at the same time that makes us survive.
I can assure you that rational optimists would not have lived long in the Stone age.
If we tried today to fight biology and become all rational optimists, we would probably all die soon. Either quickly from a nuclear apocalypse, or slowly but surely from an ecological exhaustion of our resources
For example that cities do not cause exhaustion of resources is only the case because people can see that it can actually happen and do something about it. If you don't believe me, study what happened with the Maya cities, which were as impressive as Rom and the like, but did destroy themselves long before the Spanish came in to destroy the rest of what used to be a brilliant civilization
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I have a counter argument to this book.
TLDR: the reason that Ridley can be a rational optimists is that we are all biological pessimists.
longer version:
I won't dispute that trade and specialization are one key to prosperity, we know this since at least Adam Smith.
or that big cities are a bit deal. We know this since at least antic Ron, if it's not the ancient dead cities of Mesopotamia.
But there is something I want to point out.
The reason we are not going to die all in 10 or 30 years is precisely because of our survival bias that makes us focus on what seems bad and dangerous.
Yes, that makes us unhappy, but at the same time that makes us survive.
I can assure you that rational optimists would not have lived long in the Stone age.
If we tried today to fight biology and become all rational optimists, we would probably all die soon. Either quickly from a nuclear apocalypse, or slowly but surely from an ecological exhaustion of our resources
For example that cities do not cause exhaustion of resources is only the case because people can see that it can actually happen and do something about it. If you don't believe me, study what happened with the Maya cities, which were as impressive as Rom and the like, but did destroy themselves long before the Spanish came in to destroy the rest of what used to be a brilliant civilization