Who Has the Upper Hand? Data-Driven Prediction for the 2025/2026 EPL Title Race

Predicting the winner of the English Premier League (EPL) is always a complex challenge, given the intense competition and frequent surprises that define the league. Yet, by applying a data-driven approach to team performance across the last two seasons, a strong case can be made for Liverpool FC as the top contender for the 2025/2026 title.
This prediction is based on an analysis of match outcomes from the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 seasons, specifically looking at wins, draws, and losses for each team. Using the standard EPL point system which is 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 for a loss. I calculated the total points each team accumulated. I then determined each team's performance efficiency by dividing their total earned points by the maximum possible points (calculated as matches played × 3 × total number of teams). This yielded a probability score reflecting each team's ability to consistently secure points.
According to this analysis, Liverpool FC emerged with a probability score of 0.036404 being the highest among all EPL teams over the two-year period. While the figure may appear modest on its own, its value lies in how it compares with the rest of the league. Liverpool's score positions them at the top of the performance index, highlighting their consistent form and competitive edge.
What does this mean going into the new season? Simply put, Liverpool has shown the strongest efficiency in turning matches into points across two full seasons. Their consistency, combined with tactical discipline, squad depth, and a winning mindset, makes them statistically the most likely team to lift the 2025/2026 trophy. In a sport where emotions, media narratives, and unpredictable transfers often influence expectations, a data-led forecast offers a refreshing, objective lens. As the EPL gears up for another thrilling season, the numbers suggest one thing clearly: Liverpool FC is the team to watch.