There's an old challenge with solutions and dropping humans too soon. I've seen this in the real world at least twice I can remember.
We've built a system that can answer 90% of customer inquiries, so we don't need humans. Unfortunately, 90% of customers have one of the 10% unanswered during critical stages of the customer journey - such as during onboarding, renewal or just before they quit - leading to disaster. Or we find that the 90% of inquiries normally occur alongside the 10% but outnumber them etc etc.
AI writes most of my API calling boilerplate for APIs I don't know these days. AI writes weird custom sort functions I probably wouldn't have bothered with until a later stage of a project. I use AI extensively now for tasks in my solution that would take humans a long time and AI is reasonably good at. AI writes quite good initial Unit Tests that save a bunch of keystrokes. I find all of that quite amazing really.
Within a few years, I'm guessing I'll be writing less code still, and if we get anywhere near an AGI, with some kind of huge context or access to that context then I'll end up being its muse. That's also fine if it finally comes: my grasp of the internal combustion engine's operation and the need for every lever, join and pulley is limited - doesn't stop me getting where I want to go by the route I want to take.
No major company that made state-of-the-art Steam Shovels survived the introduction of the Backhoe. Things change, jobs change, and the world changes. The change to society, with a reduced need for a workforce, is going to drive another revolution. If you have no way to legitimately struggle up from the gutter, then enough people together can change the world - so we are definitely at a point where it looks like the entire way the world operates may change again - as it did with the change from feudalism. How many years away? That's hard to predict - more than 4? Less than 50? In my kids' lifetimes, I reckon. Maybe in mine.
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There's an old challenge with solutions and dropping humans too soon. I've seen this in the real world at least twice I can remember.
We've built a system that can answer 90% of customer inquiries, so we don't need humans. Unfortunately, 90% of customers have one of the 10% unanswered during critical stages of the customer journey - such as during onboarding, renewal or just before they quit - leading to disaster. Or we find that the 90% of inquiries normally occur alongside the 10% but outnumber them etc etc.
AI writes most of my API calling boilerplate for APIs I don't know these days. AI writes weird custom sort functions I probably wouldn't have bothered with until a later stage of a project. I use AI extensively now for tasks in my solution that would take humans a long time and AI is reasonably good at. AI writes quite good initial Unit Tests that save a bunch of keystrokes. I find all of that quite amazing really.
Within a few years, I'm guessing I'll be writing less code still, and if we get anywhere near an AGI, with some kind of huge context or access to that context then I'll end up being its muse. That's also fine if it finally comes: my grasp of the internal combustion engine's operation and the need for every lever, join and pulley is limited - doesn't stop me getting where I want to go by the route I want to take.
No major company that made state-of-the-art Steam Shovels survived the introduction of the Backhoe. Things change, jobs change, and the world changes. The change to society, with a reduced need for a workforce, is going to drive another revolution. If you have no way to legitimately struggle up from the gutter, then enough people together can change the world - so we are definitely at a point where it looks like the entire way the world operates may change again - as it did with the change from feudalism. How many years away? That's hard to predict - more than 4? Less than 50? In my kids' lifetimes, I reckon. Maybe in mine.