I'm a coder who has worn a lot of hats, from individual contributor to lead engineer to "CTO" (yes, in quotes, make of that what you will!). I've a lot to learn and hopefully some to share as well.
One of my favorite tips is to never give a single estimate: give two, a 50% confidence estimate and an 80% confidence estimate.
As a rule of thumb the 80% estimate can just be double the 50% estimate, though YMMV.
Doing it this way draws attention to the inherent inaccuracy of estimating, and gives you margin for being wrong. Even if you end up going over your 80% confidence estimate, you were only 80% confident in hitting that. It happens.
But as you go, you can work on dialing things in, so that you stay under your 80% confidence estimate roughly 80% of the time. You'll never be perfect.
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One of my favorite tips is to never give a single estimate: give two, a 50% confidence estimate and an 80% confidence estimate.
As a rule of thumb the 80% estimate can just be double the 50% estimate, though YMMV.
Doing it this way draws attention to the inherent inaccuracy of estimating, and gives you margin for being wrong. Even if you end up going over your 80% confidence estimate, you were only 80% confident in hitting that. It happens.
But as you go, you can work on dialing things in, so that you stay under your 80% confidence estimate roughly 80% of the time. You'll never be perfect.