Bill Ackman's Best Idea for 2026: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, has doubled down on what he calls his 'Best Idea for 2026': a massive position in Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), the two US GSEs that underpin the $12 trillion US mortgage market.
The numbers are striking. Fannie Mae earned $14.4 billion in net profit in 2025, yet trades at a market cap of just $9.54 billion — an implied P/E of 0.66x. Freddie Mac: $10.7B net income, $4.69B market cap, 0.44x implied P/E. Typical US bank stocks trade at 10-15x earnings.
Why so cheap? Under conservatorship (since 2008), neither company can pay dividends. And if privatization fails, this structure continues indefinitely.
Ackman's 3-Stage Privatization Roadmap:
- Acknowledge repayment: $193B was invested in 2008; over $300B returned through dividends.
- Exercise Treasury warrants: The government holds warrants for 79.9% of each company at fractions of a penny per share — potentially unlocking $300B+ in value for taxpayers.
- NYSE relisting + IPO: Fannie Mae IPO in Q4 2026, Freddie Mac in 2027.
On March 30, 2026, Ackman posted: 'Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. They could be a 10X.' The next day, FNMA surged 40%+.
The risks: mortgage rates could rise $150-230/month after privatization, legal complexities remain, and analysts put full privatization probability at ~67% within Trump's term.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock
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