Samsung Electronics is set to report Q1 2026 preliminary earnings on April 7, with analyst estimates ranging dramatically from ₩40.5 trillion to ₩53.9 trillion in operating profit — a gap that reveals a fundamental disagreement about the pace of the memory supercycle.
Why it matters: If Samsung hits the ₩50 trillion mark, it would mean the company earned more in a single quarter than its entire 2025 annual operating profit of ₩43 trillion. This would be roughly 3x the previous quarterly record of ₩17.6 trillion set in Q4 2018.
The key variable is DS (Device Solutions): The semiconductor division is expected to contribute 82%+ of total profits, driven by HBM revenue tripling YoY and DRAM prices surging up to 10x. Meritz Securities projects DS operating profit alone at ₩47 trillion, while the consensus average sits at ₩37 trillion — this single division explains nearly the entire forecast gap.
Three scenarios for investors: Bull case (30% probability): ₩50T+ earnings surprise triggers short-term rally. Base case (50%): ₩40-45T meets consensus, neutral reaction. Bear case (20%): Below ₩40T on DX weakness causes selloff.
Our take: Based on confirmed HBM purchase orders and structural DRAM pricing, we lean toward ₩45-50T. This thesis breaks if Galaxy sales disappoint or DS margins come in below estimates.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock
Top comments (0)