SK Hynix Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: What the 1.214M KRW All-Time High Is Telling Us
SK Hynix shares hit an all-time high of 1,214,000 KRW (+4.12%) on April 21, 2026 -- the first time the stock ever breached the 1.2M KRW threshold, just two days before Q1 2026 earnings (April 23, 3PM KST).
The Consensus Gap
Street consensus (WiseReport) sits at KRW 34.9 trillion in operating profit. Yet KB Securities (40T), Yuanta (40.4T), iM Securities (39.4T), and Citi (39.1T) all cluster around KRW 40 trillion -- a 5+ trillion gap above consensus. Key drivers: DRAM ASP +75% YoY (DS Investment, April 2026), and the collapse of the traditional semiconductor off-season due to AI server demand.
HBM Structural Advantage
SK Hynix holds 62% of the HBM market by shipment volume (Q2 2025, SK Hynix Newsroom) and commands 71% of NVIDIA HBM3E supply (Daishin Securities). UBS projects ~70% market share in next-generation HBM4. The demand-supply ratio at 76% confirms structural undersupply remains intact.
Key Risk
Samsung Electronics has expanded its HBM share from 17% to 35% (Q2-Q3 2025), with projected 2026 HBM revenue of KRW 24 trillion (+189% YoY). Chinese CXMT remains a wildcard with no public financials available.
Our Take
The KRW 40 trillion operating profit estimate looks defensible given the structural HBM supply shortage. This judgment would need revision if CXMT ramps HBM3E faster than expected, or if major tech capex plans are materially scaled back due to tariff uncertainty.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock.
Top comments (0)