Iran's second ceasefire talks with the U.S. collapsed on April 22, 2026, and South Korean aluminum stocks surged. Sama Aluminum (006110) jumped +27.18% on the day, while Choil Aluminum (018470) rose +14.38%.
Why Aluminum Stocks Are Moving
The Middle East produces roughly 9% of global aluminum supply (about 7 million tons/year). Iran's missile strikes in late March knocked out the Al Taweelah smelter in UAE (1.6M tons/year) and damaged Aluminum Bahrain. LME 3-month futures are up +15% from pre-war levels at ~$3,500/ton. Wood Mackenzie estimates 300-350M tons of annual supply disruption; Mercuria sees a shortfall of at least 200M tons by year-end.
What Differentiates These Stocks
Not all aluminum stocks benefit equally:
- Sama Aluminum: Battery-grade foil specialist — direct LME price pass-through, but still in operating loss mode (losses widened 82.9% YoY through Q3 2025).
- Choil Aluminum: Rolled sheet producer with KRW 131.8B in inventory (~10x annual operating profit). High inventory = higher mark-to-market gains when LME rises.
- Namsun Aluminum: Building materials focus — less direct LME exposure, up only +2.70%.
Investment Considerations
The bull case holds while Iran talks stay deadlocked and smelters remain offline. Any ceasefire signal or Chinese inventory release could reverse these gains quickly.
For the full analysis in Korean, visit Snakestock.
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