Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/bch/inflation by MrNasdog.
Bitcoin Cash mints about 0.04M BCH every 90 days from its fixed proof-of-work block reward of 3.125 BCH, with nothing offsetting it. Framework reading: +0.20% net on a ~20.06M circulating base against a 21M hard cap — about 95% mined, with the next halving due around Apr 3 2028. The supply monitor reads +0.19%, a 0.02-point agreement.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending July 14 2026, the framework reads Bitcoin Cash at +0.20% net inflation — pure mining emission, no offsetting flow. The aggregator monitor reads +0.19%, a 0.02-percentage-point gap — among the cleanest agreements in the catalog, so no monitor-gap chip ships. Bitcoin Cash is a quiet chain: fair-launch proof-of-work forked from Bitcoin in 2017, fully predictable emission, slowly approaching its 21M hard cap.
Sell pressure: where new BCH comes from
One source only. Sell #1 (protocol inflation) booked ~0.04M BCH: the Bitcoin Cash block reward pays 3.125 BCH per block at a ten-minute block target — roughly 144 blocks and about 450 BCH per day, or 40,500 BCH per 90 days. The subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks; the next halving to 1.5625 BCH lands around Apr 3 2028 — well outside the next 90 days. Sell #2 (vesting unlocks) is 0 forever: Bitcoin Cash forked fair in Aug 2017 with no premine, no team allocation, and no investor vesting. Sell #3 (Foundation and unscheduled unlocks) is 0 — there is no protocol-level foundation treasury and no discretionary stockpile to release. Sell #4 (bankruptcy) is 0.
The arithmetic is worth showing because so few coins allow it this cleanly. Bitcoin Cash targets a ten-minute block, so the chain produces about 144 blocks a day. At 3.125 BCH each, that is roughly 450 BCH per day — 40,500 BCH across 90 days, or 0.20% of the 20.06M circulating base. The monitor measured +0.19% over the same window from the supply data alone, independently of this derivation. When a protocol's entire supply policy fits in two lines of multiplication and the observed chain matches it to two hundredths of a percent, the framework has nothing left to investigate — which is precisely the point of owning an asset like this.
Buy pressure: where new BCH goes
The buy ledger is entirely empty. Buy #1 (programmatic buyback) is 0: Bitcoin Cash has no treasury and no protocol revenue, so there is nothing to fund open-market buying. Buy #2 (protocol fee burn) is 0: transaction fees flow to miners inside the coinbase — nothing is destroyed. Buy #3 (Foundation buy) is 0; there is no accumulation programme. Buy #4 (new long-term lock) is 0: Bitcoin Cash is pure proof-of-work, with no staking and no lockup mechanism. New supply enters; nothing leaves the market.
Foundation and overhang
There is no team-controlled overhang to enumerate — the framework records BCH as fully circulating with no identified team-controlled wallets. The fair-launch fork left no team allocation, and there is no foundation treasury, no investor unlock schedule, and no buyback accumulation destination that could surprise the market. Among the hundred coins in coverage, this is one of the shortest overhang sections in the catalog, which is itself the finding: nothing is being watched because nothing exists to watch. If, against all precedent, a large dormant balance ever began moving toward the market, that outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh; today there is nothing of the sort.
How BCH compares to other halving-model PoW chains
Among hard-cap halving chains, Bitcoin Cash sits exactly where its design puts it: the same emission model as Bitcoin — fixed reward, four-year halvings, a 21M hard cap — because BCH is a 2017 fork of Bitcoin's ledger and monetary policy. Bitcoin itself currently emits ~0.2% per 90 days post its 2024 halving, and Bitcoin Cash's ~0.20% is effectively identical, since the two share the same subsidy and the same cap. Against Litecoin — another fair-launch halving chain at 4× the block speed and cap, emitting ~0.4% — BCH runs at roughly half the pace. Against smooth-decay chains like Kaspa, whose reward declines a few percent monthly instead of stepping every four years, BCH's emission is lumpier between halvings but identical in destination: a fixed ceiling, asymptotically approached.
The contrast with exchange tokens and proof-of-stake L1s is starker: BCH's scarcity is coded, not earned. An exchange token can go net-deflationary by burning revenue; an uncapped staking chain stays inflationary because it mints fresh rewards with no ceiling. Bitcoin Cash does neither — no revenue dependence, no governance discretion, no treasury opacity, no burn to shrink supply, and no uncapped emission to inflate it. It will be mildly inflationary until the cap is reached, by design, with the rate stepping down every four years. About 20.06M of 21M is already mined, leaving under a million coins ever to be issued.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Genuinely little. The Apr 3 2028 halving is the only scheduled supply event and it sits nearly two years away; the framework reading stays ~+0.20% until then. The recent May 15 2026 "Layla" network upgrade activated four CHIPs — loops, functions, bitwise operations, and pay-to-script-32 — but these change what BCH contracts can do, not how much BCH exists, so they do not touch the supply ledger. Hashrate swings can wobble block timing by a few percent, which is noise at this scale until the difficulty adjustment pulls it back. Watch the distance to the 21M cap, which only grows more binding over time. The only structural watch line is protocol governance — any proposal touching the emission schedule — and none exists. The next material change to this page should be the halving itself.
Summary
Bitcoin Cash is a fair-launch, hard-cap proof-of-work chain emitting ~0.04M BCH per 90 days at 3.125 BCH per block, with an empty buy ledger and no team-controlled overhang at all. The framework reads +0.20% net; the monitor agrees to within 0.02 points. The supply trajectory is fully coded: ~95% of the 21M cap is mined, the Apr 3 2028 halving cuts the pace in half, and nothing discretionary can move it. BCH is among the most predictable supply profiles in coverage.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 14, 2026.
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