Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/doge/inflation
Dogecoin (DOGE) minted 1.23B DOGE in the last 90 days from a flat, uncapped proof-of-work block subsidy of 10,000 DOGE per block, against a buy ledger of exactly 0 — no burn, no buyback, no vesting, no lock. The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads +0.79% net on a ~155.68B circulating base with no supply cap, and the independent monitor reads +0.80% — a gap of 0.01 percentage points. Because every DOGE ever mined is already inside that circulating base, mining is the only thing that can add supply, and the forward read is the same +0.79%.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending Aug 28 2026, the framework reads DOGE at +0.79% net inflation against a monitor reading of +0.80% — a gap of about 0.01 percentage points, far inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap flag is raised. The two readings are measuring the same thing and agree: Dogecoin issuance is the whole ledger, and the small residual is snapshot noise in how the monitor derives supply. That agreement is itself the finding. Dogecoin has no non-circulating bucket — the published circulating supply of 155.68B DOGE matches the chain's own issued supply to within an hour of mining — so there is no treasury, no reserve and no escrow whose release could ever surprise the number. Dogecoin is the purest passthrough chain in coverage: new coins are minted at a fixed rate and reach the market in full, forever, because nothing in the Dogecoin protocol can take a coin back. That makes DOGE structurally, mildly inflationary at a low and fully predictable pace.
Sell pressure: where new DOGE comes from
Only one row on the Dogecoin sell ledger mints anything. Sell #1, protocol inflation, booked ~1.23B DOGE. The Dogecoin block subsidy pays a flat 10,000 DOGE and has not halved since block 600,000 in Feb 2015, so issuance is a permanent tail of roughly 4.98B DOGE a year that never steps down. This build measured that rather than assuming it: the chain moved from block 6,228,170 to block 6,350,941 over the window, which is 122,771 blocks — about 1,364 a day against the nominal 1,440, because real Dogecoin block spacing drifts with merge-mining hashrate and measured out at 63.3 seconds a block across this window rather than 60. Taking the nominal rate would have over-stated Dogecoin issuance by roughly 68M DOGE. The subsidy itself was read straight off the Dogecoin coinbase at six heights spanning eleven years — 700,000 in 2015 through 6,350,900 this week — and is exactly 10,000 DOGE at every one, so the Bitcoin-lineage halving boundary is confirmed absent from the reward function rather than assumed absent from reputation.
Every other Dogecoin sell row is 0, and they are zero for the same structural reason. Sell #2, vesting unlocks, is 0 because Dogecoin launched in Dec 2013 with no presale and no insider allocation, so no unlock calendar exists, and the chain has no smart-contract layer that could hold a vesting escrow. Sell #3, Foundation and unscheduled unlocks, is 0 because Dogecoin has no foundation reserve, no team allocation and no unscheduled pool — every DOGE was mined and is already counted as circulating, so there is nothing left outside the float that could unlock into it. Sell #4, long-term locked or bankruptcy, is 0: no estate, no trustee, no escrow anywhere in Dogecoin's history.
Buy pressure: where new DOGE goes
Nowhere. Every Dogecoin buy row reads 0, and the important ones are structurally impossible rather than merely dormant. Buy #1, programmatic buyback, is 0 because Dogecoin collects no protocol revenue and has no treasury contract — there is no cash flow to fund a buyback and no contract that could execute one. Buy #2, protocol fee burn, is 0, and this build measured that zero on three separate surfaces rather than asserting it, because a burn does not always show up where you first look. First, the Dogecoin coinbase at both ends of the window: every block paid its miner the 10,000 DOGE subsidy plus the entire transaction-fee total, so no fee is destroyed. Second, the supply meter at both ends: an independent chain-derived supply series rose by 1.21B DOGE over the days it covers, exactly the mined amount, with no step down anywhere. Third — the check a UTXO chain specifically needs — the unspendable side: Dogecoin's long-standing keyless proof-of-burn address holds 1.85B DOGE from a 2014 community event and took in just 13.79 DOGE across the entire 90-day window, on all four of the four transfers it received. Those keyless coins are gone for good but are still counted in published supply, so they do not shrink the denominator either. Dogecoin has never carried a burn opcode or a base-fee sink, so no DOGE is removed at any level of activity, and the burn concepts that resurface in Dogecoin coverage — community burn addresses, layer-2 fee sinks, a mining pool marketing a deflationary loop that in fact sells the DOGE it mines and burns its own token instead — remain proposals or other coins' mechanisms.
Buy #3, Foundation buy, is 0: there is no protocol-level accumulation programme, and the Dogecoin Foundation's own corporate arm reported holding no coins directly at its last two quarter ends and making no purchases in the period, so the widely-quoted headline treasury figure is assets under management rather than an owned position. Buy #4, new long-term lock, is 0: Dogecoin has no staking, no lockup contract and no vault, so coins are either mined or simply held. The spot DOGE funds do hold coins directly, but they are freely redeemable and belong to their investors, which is depositor custody rather than a structural lock — and one of them pays its management fee in DOGE, which recycles already-circulating coins rather than removing them. An empty buy ledger is the single most important structural fact about DOGE: the Dogecoin mint has no counterweight at any price.
Foundation and overhang
Dogecoin has no team-controlled overhang at all, and that is a measurable claim rather than a stylistic one: the published circulating supply and the chain's issued supply are the same number, so there is no non-circulating allocation, no Foundation treasury, no DAO treasury, no unscheduled unlock pool, no buyback accumulation wallet and no bankruptcy residual sitting outside the float. What the framework monitors instead is a newer class of holder — listed companies running Dogecoin treasuries — and it monitors them explicitly outside Sell #3, because their coins belong to their shareholders and were already in the circulating base, exactly as exchange custodial coins belong to depositors. The largest of them sold substantially all 463.1M DOGE on Jul 20 2026 for roughly $33.4M and exited the business; two smaller listed holders remain, at roughly 70.5M DOGE and 21.7M DOGE as of Jun 30 2026, flat to slightly accumulating, custodied with third-party trust companies rather than self-custodied. They are refreshed by walking regulated filings every couple of weeks. If any of those balances falls between refreshes, the framework records it as market pressure on this class — but not as new Dogecoin supply, because no DOGE is created or released when one already-circulating coin changes owner.
How DOGE compares to other proof-of-work chains
Dogecoin is the structural opposite of a halving chain. Bitcoin and Litecoin both pair proof-of-work issuance with a hard cap and a scheduled subsidy halving, so their inflation rate falls on a known calendar and converges toward zero. Dogecoin halved four times and then stopped: since block 600,000 the Dogecoin block reward has been permanently pinned at 10,000 DOGE, which means absolute issuance is constant and the percentage rate declines only very slowly as the base grows. At ~155.68B circulating, a fixed 4.98B DOGE a year is about 3.2% annually — low enough not to be alarming, permanent enough never to disappear.
Against tail-emission privacy coins such as Monero, Dogecoin looks similar in shape but larger in magnitude: both accepted permanent issuance as the price of paying miners forever, and both are uncapped by design rather than by accident. Against fee-burning smart-contract chains the contrast is starker. Ethereum offsets issuance with a base-fee burn that can flip the chain net-deflationary during busy periods; BNB runs a quarterly buyback-and-burn against exchange revenue. Dogecoin has neither, and cannot acquire either without a hard fork, because it has no fee sink and no protocol revenue to spend. Dogecoin is also unusual in a second way that flatters it: because its circulating supply and its issued supply are identical, it carries none of the unlock-cliff risk that dominates the inflation reading on most vesting-era tokens. The whole DOGE inflation story is one number — a small, fixed, permanent mint that nothing offsets, on the one line in Dogecoin's tokenomics that has never moved and is not scheduled to.
What to watch in the next 90 days
First, the block-reward proposal in the Dogecoin Core repository that would cut the subsidy from 10,000 DOGE to 1,000 DOGE per block: it is closed and unmerged with no activation height, but it is the only change that would move Sell #1 materially, so it stays the single structural watch line. Second, Dogecoin Core itself: the last tagged release is from Dec 2024 and every commit in this window was build, packaging or peer-connection work, so any consensus-touching change would be the first real signal that Dogecoin issuance or the fee path is moving. Third, observed block spacing: Dogecoin ran 1,364 blocks a day this window against a nominal 1,440, and a merge-mining hashrate swing in either direction moves quarterly Dogecoin issuance by tens of millions of DOGE. Fourth, the two remaining listed Dogecoin treasuries near 70.5M and 21.7M DOGE, whose next quarterly filings are the refresh point. Fifth, any live burn mechanism — a layer-2 fee sink or a protocol-level burn actually shipping would be the first buy row Dogecoin has ever had.
Summary
The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Dogecoin (DOGE) at +0.79% net inflation over the last 90 days and the same +0.79% forward, against a monitor reading of +0.80%. The mechanism is the simplest in coverage: a flat, uncapped, non-halving proof-of-work subsidy of 10,000 DOGE per block that minted 1.23B DOGE across 122,771 measured blocks, set against a buy ledger of exactly zero. The key risk is that the empty buy side is permanent, not temporary — Dogecoin has no burn, no buyback, no staking and no protocol revenue with which to build one, so the mint passes through to the market in full and forever. The ceiling is that there is no ceiling: Dogecoin has no supply cap, and at the current base the fixed 4.98B DOGE of annual issuance works out to roughly 3.2% a year, declining only as the denominator grows.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of DOGE, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Aug 28 2026.
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