Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/sol/inflation by MrNasdog.
Solana mints new SOL to pay stakers at about 3.77% a year, roughly 5.84M SOL over 90 days, with only a tiny base-fee burn offsetting it. Framework reading: about +1.00% net for the window against the inflation monitor's +1.42%. Supply is growing, but the issuance rate falls about 15% a year on a fixed schedule toward a 1.5% floor.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending July 3 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads SOL at +1.00% net on its circulating base. The independent inflation monitor reads +1.42%, a gap of 0.42 percentage points — inside the 0.5pp tolerance, so no data-conflict chip is raised. Issuance is sized on the total-supply base (about 3.77% of roughly 629.59M total), and the small residual against the monitor is staking rewards re-entering circulation plus negligible estate movement on top of issuance, not a sizing error. SOL is structurally inflationary but disinflating — the rate is positive today and scheduled to keep falling.
Sell pressure: where new SOL comes from
Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the only material flow. Solana's staking issuance runs at about 3.77% a year as of July 2026, with the foundation share at zero and all issuance paid to validators and stakers. That is roughly 5.84M SOL over the 90-day window. The rate sits on a published disinflation curve: it began at 8% at launch and falls about 15% a year toward a long-run 1.5% floor. Because issuance is a percentage of total supply rather than a fixed token amount, the framework sizes it on the total-supply base of roughly 629.59M SOL.
The rest of the sell ledger is booked zero. Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: team and early-backer vesting has fully expired, with no published unlock cliff in the next 90 days. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is zero, with about 48.58M SOL non-circulating (foundation residual and stake-pool accounts) tracked but with no in-window discretionary deployment booked. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero; the large FTX estate tranche was auctioned to institutions back in 2025, its locked stake is now zero, and the roughly 2.985M SOL residual moves as opportunistic unstakes and creditor repayments with no dated in-window cliff — while the roughly 68% of supply that is staked locks SOL rather than adding it.
Buy pressure: where new SOL goes
The buy ledger is empty at this scale. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero, because staking rewards are paid from fresh issuance rather than market purchases. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is non-zero but negligible: 50% of each base fee is burned, roughly 0.07M SOL over 90 days, but the absolute pace is tiny next to 5.84M SOL of issuance, so it nets to zero at the precision shown; priority fees now flow entirely to validators rather than the burn. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — is zero; there is no accumulation programme. Buy #4 — new long-term lock — is zero as a programmatic line: staking locks SOL for yield but is validator-driven, not a programme with an announced lock quantum.
Foundation and overhang
The tracked overhangs are the non-circulating pool — about 48.58M SOL across foundation residual and stake-pool accounts, with no published in-window cliff — and the FTX/Alameda estate residual of roughly 2.985M SOL, whose locked stake is now zero and which moves as opportunistic unstakes and creditor repayments rather than on a dated schedule. The framework books no in-window discretionary deployment, so their flow is zero for the period, but both are monitored on a roughly bi-weekly web walk. If either balance falls between refreshes — a tranche entering circulation faster than expected — the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh. These pools, layered on top of issuance, are one source of the small residual between the framework reading and the monitor.
How SOL compares to other uncapped Layer 1 chains
Solana is a continuous-emission, uncapped Layer 1 with a disinflation curve — the same broad family as Ethereum, but with a key mechanism difference. Ethereum pairs its issuance with a full base-fee burn, so its net collapses toward zero; Solana burns only half of a tiny base fee, so almost all of its issuance reaches the float and the net stays clearly positive. Against a reserve-drain model like Cardano, where new supply is drawn from a depleting reserve at a falling rate, Solana's curve is a fixed percentage-of-supply schedule rather than a reserve mechanic.
What distinguishes SOL for an inflation reading is the disinflation schedule: today's 3.77% is not stable but falling about 15% a year toward 1.5%. So the +1.00% net is a number with a known downward trajectory — each year the same analysis should produce a lower issuance figure, absent a governance change to the curve. Two prior attempts to accelerate that curve, SIMD-0228 and SIMD-0411, both failed to pass, and a third, SIMD-0550 — filed June 2 2026 to double the disinflation rate to 30% a year — is still in community discussion with only one of two required team approvals and no validator vote, so the schedule is as-launched today. That is a structurally different shape from a fixed-rate emitter, whose number stays flat, or a capped halving chain, whose number steps down in discrete jumps.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Watch the disinflation step — the issuance rate ratchets down on its annual schedule, so the next reading should be modestly lower. Watch the non-circulating pool and the FTX estate residual's release pace, the most likely driver of any gap between the framework reading and the monitor; a faster-than-expected tranche would lift Sell #3 above zero. Watch the staking participation rate, which interacts with effective yield. And watch SIMD-0550, the live proposal to double the disinflation rate to 30% a year — if it clears its remaining team review, advances to a validator vote and passes, the trajectory resets sharply lower. None of these is a single dated event; they are schedule and policy variables the next refresh re-reads.
Summary
SOL is inflationary but on a falling path. Staking issuance of about 5.84M SOL over the window — roughly 3.77% a year on the total-supply base — is barely offset by a tiny fee burn, for a framework reading of +1.00% net against the monitor's +1.42%, a 0.42-percentage-point gap that stays inside tolerance. The small residual is staking rewards re-entering circulation plus negligible estate movement on top of issuance, not a sizing error, and the other ledger rows are booked zero-and-monitored rather than fabricated. The defining feature is the disinflation curve: the rate falls about 15% a year toward a 1.5% floor, so SOL's number is positive today but structurally trending down.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Solana (SOL), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 3, 2026.
Top comments (0)