Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/sol/inflation by MrNasdog.
Solana issues new SOL to pay stakers at about 3.88% a year, roughly 6.0M SOL over 90 days, with only a tiny fee burn offsetting it. Framework reading: about +1.03% net for the window against the inflation monitor's +1.48%. Supply is growing, but the issuance rate falls about 15% a year on a fixed schedule toward a 1.5% floor.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending June 14 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads SOL at +1.03% net on its circulating base. The independent inflation monitor reads +1.48%, a gap of 0.45 percentage points — inside the 0.5pp tolerance, so no data-conflict chip is raised. Issuance is sized on the total-supply base (about 3.88% of roughly 625M total), and the small residual against the monitor is continuing token unlocks entering circulation on top of issuance, not a sizing error. SOL is structurally inflationary but disinflating — the rate is positive today and scheduled to keep falling.
Sell pressure: where new SOL comes from
Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the dominant flow. Staking issuance runs at about 3.88% a year as of April 2026, which is roughly 6.0M SOL over the 90-day window, all paid to stakers. The rate is on a published disinflation curve: it began at 8% at launch and falls about 15% a year toward a long-run 1.5% floor. Because issuance is a percentage of total supply rather than a fixed token amount, the framework sizes it on the total-supply base of roughly 625M SOL.
The rest of the sell ledger is booked zero. Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is a tracked overhang at zero: continuing foundation and early-backer unlocks add a small amount of supply on top of issuance, but the amount is too small to size cleanly this window, so it is booked zero and monitored rather than fabricated. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is zero: foundation and early-stakeholder allocations release on a partial schedule with no in-window discretionary deployment booked. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero; there is no bankruptcy estate, and the roughly 68% of supply that is staked locks SOL rather than adding it.
Buy pressure: where new SOL goes
The buy ledger is empty at this scale. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero, because staking rewards are paid from fresh issuance rather than market purchases. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is non-zero but negligible: 50% of each base fee is burned, but the absolute pace is tiny next to 6.0M SOL of issuance, so it nets to zero at the precision shown. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — is zero; there is no accumulation programme. Buy #4 — new long-term lock — is zero as a programmatic line: staking locks SOL for yield but is validator-driven, not a programme with an announced lock quantum.
Foundation and overhang
The tracked overhang is the foundation and early-backer pool — about 45M SOL still non-circulating, on a partial linear release schedule. The framework books no in-window discretionary deployment, so its flow is zero for the period, but it is monitored on a roughly bi-weekly web walk. If this overhang's balance falls between refreshes — a tranche entering circulation faster than the linear schedule — the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh. This pool, layered on top of issuance, is the most likely source of the small residual between the framework reading and the monitor.
How SOL compares to other uncapped Layer 1 chains
Solana is a continuous-emission, uncapped Layer 1 with a disinflation curve — the same broad family as Ethereum, but with a key mechanism difference. Ethereum pairs its issuance with a full base-fee burn, so its net collapses toward zero; Solana burns only half of a tiny base fee, so almost all of its issuance reaches the float and the net stays clearly positive. Against a reserve-drain model like Cardano, where new supply is drawn from a depleting reserve at a falling rate, Solana's curve is a fixed percentage-of-supply schedule rather than a reserve mechanic.
What distinguishes SOL for an inflation reading is the disinflation schedule: today's 3.88% is not stable but falling about 15% a year toward 1.5%. So the +1.03% net is a number with a known downward trajectory — each year the same analysis should produce a lower issuance figure, absent a governance change to the curve. That is a structurally different shape from a fixed-rate emitter, whose number stays flat, or a capped halving chain, whose number steps down in discrete jumps.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Watch the disinflation step — the issuance rate ratchets down on its annual schedule, so the next reading should be modestly lower. Watch the foundation and early-backer unlock cadence, the most likely driver of any gap between the framework reading and the monitor; a faster-than-linear tranche would lift Sell #3 above zero. Watch the staking participation rate, which interacts with effective yield. And watch for any governance proposal to change the inflation curve itself, which would reset the trajectory. None of these is a single dated event; they are schedule and policy variables the next refresh re-reads.
Summary
SOL is inflationary but on a falling path. Staking issuance of about 6.0M SOL over the window — roughly 3.88% a year on the total-supply base — is barely offset by a tiny fee burn, for a framework reading of +1.03% net against the monitor's +1.48%, a 0.45-percentage-point gap that stays inside tolerance. The small residual is continuing foundation and early-backer unlocks on top of issuance, not a sizing error, and is booked zero-and-monitored rather than fabricated. The defining feature is the disinflation curve: the rate falls about 15% a year toward a 1.5% floor, so SOL's number is positive today but structurally trending down.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Solana (SOL), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 14, 2026.
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