How I Built a Polymarket AFK Trading Bot That Runs While I Sleep

The goal was simple: fully autonomous trading on Polymarket 5/15-min BTC markets with zero manual intervention.

Architecture: Three Specialized Agents

Instead of one monolithic script, I split the system into three independent agents:

1. Analyst Agent (Claude 3.5 Sonnet via Anthropic API)

Ingests real-time market data + news + sentiment
Outputs: calibrated probability, confidence score (0–1), and trade recommendation
Uses structured prompting with historical resolution context

2. Executor Agent

Monitors Analyst output via Redis pub/sub
Validates edge: model_prob - market_prob > threshold (after fees)
Executes via viem directly on Polygon Conditional Tokens contract
IOC orders with pre-execution best-ask revalidation

3. Coder Agent (Optional OpenAI Codex / Claude Code)

Auto-fixes bugs, improves prompts, and patches strategies based on performance logs

Core Technical Flow

// Simplified decision loop
const signal = await analyst.getSignal(marketId);

if (signal.edge > 0.07 && signal.confidence > 0.75 && timeLeft < 90) {
    await executor.placeTrade({
        side: signal.direction,
        amount: calculateKelly(signal.edge),
        marketId
    });
}