Dated: 2026-10-01 — census v1 07:12Z (static HTML) + v2 09:53–09:54Z (headless browser); incumbent checks 10:05–10:20Z.
Pennyforge research artifact. $0 data (public shop pages, primary PSP/EPI/association pages). Per-shop results and the method are available on request; the re-run script too.
Context (primary sources, verified 2026-10-01)
iDEAL is the Netherlands' dominant online bank-payment method; Wero (European Payments Initiative) is its successor. The iDEAL brand owner (ideal.nl/naar-wero) says the migration runs until end-2027 ("Uiterlijk eind 2027 is iedere iDEAL-acceptant overgestapt naar Wero"), hedged "onder voorbehoud van verdere afstemming met de toezichthouder". Dated milestones (CM.com merchant guide + EPI confirmation 2026-07-16, with Thuiswinkel.org / eCommerce Europe / Dutch Payments Association):
- 2026-01-08 media campaign · 2026-01-15 bank consumer communications
- 2026-01-29 → 2026-03-31: co-branded "iDEAL | Wero" logo rollout (the window is closed — ~2 months ago)
- Oct 2026: all Dutch issuing banks on Wero (issuer milestone)
- 31 Dec 2027: full migration, iDEAL phased out; purchase protection full coverage targeted 2028-01-01
- Third-party (Clearing Post tracker, updated Sep 2026): NL online payments "Planned Dec 2026"; EPI claims 60M registered users and 48,000+ merchants have processed Wero transactions (2026-09-16).
The census (24 major NL/DE shops)
Method v1: curl of homepage + payment/help pages, substring wero/ideal on static HTML — a JS-rendered absence is NOT an absence. Method v2: headless Chromium (local) DOM text on the shops v1 could not see.
| Class | v1 (static) | v2 (after browser pass) | Shops (v2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WERO + IDEAL (dual branding) | 4 | 5 (21%) | coolblue.nl, mediamarkt.nl, action.nl, lidl.de, bol.com (browser-verified on its official payment page: "Betaal via iDEAL | Wero, achteraf betalen, creditcard of een cadeaubon.") |
| IDEAL-ONLY | 5 | 5 | apple.com/nl, aboutyou.nl, etos.nl, apple.com/de, c-and-a.com |
| NEITHER in static HTML | 13 | 12 | wehkamp.nl (Cloudflare wall, >10s), dm.de (JS SPA shell), decathlon.nl, vink.com, hema.nl, amazon.de, zalando.de, otto.de, mediamarkt.de, rossmann.de, aboutyou.de, kaufland.de |
| UNCHECKED | 2 | 2 | albertheijn.com (JS redirect shell to /lander), h&m.com/de (fetch ERR) |
Reading: with the co-branding window closed 2026-03-31, 5 of the 24 largest NL/DE shops (including the largest NL marketplace, bol.com) already show dual branding, and 5 are still iDEAL-only — the migration is visibly in progress but far from uniform. The 12 "neither-in-static-HTML" shops need deeper checkout passes (most render payment logos via JS or require login); that is the next census pass, not a verdict.
The incumbent tension (verified 2026-10-01)
- Mollie's Wero page (mollie.com/payments/wero): status "Coming soon", available in DE, FR, BE — NL not listed, NL pricing already shown (€0.32/txn), sidebar links "iDEAL | Wero" to the iDEAL page.
- Adyen (knowledge hub, 2026-07-06): "one of the first PSPs to offer Wero" (FR/BE/LU/DE/NL/AT), but "adoption is still in its early stages" and issuer coverage "hasn't yet been reached consistently".
The iDEAL brand owner says the migration has already started; a major NL PSP still lists the Netherlands as not-yet-available. Dated primary-adjacent quotes, both retrievable today.
What does NOT exist yet (the refined negative claim)
PSP marketing pages, EPI/association news, and one country-level tracker (Clearing Post) exist — but no dated, third-party, per-merchant migration census with a fixed public method. This artifact is the first dated point of exactly that: a fixed shop list, a fixed method, a timestamp. The series continues quarterly (same 24 shops + replacements).
Honest caveats
- 24 shops is an indicative panel, not a population; DE shops are included because the Wero rollout is pan-EU.
- Static-HTML substring + single browser pass ≠ checkout-level truth; "dual branding visible" is a branding signal, not a contract signal.
- SERP/incumbent pages are self-reported by the vendors with a stake.
- The "end-2027" deadline carries the iDEAL owner's own hedge (regulator alignment).
This work was done by Pennyforge, a one-person studio: the analysis was AI-assisted with human editorial review, as we practice it across all our research posts. Per-shop evidence and the re-run script on request.
Top comments (1)
Follow-up (same day, 2026-10-01 15:00Z): the 12 "invisible" shops, browser-checked.
A headless-Chromium pass (full JS render + footer scroll) over the 12 NEITHER shops — homepage + payment/help page each — found no new dual branding. Honest breakdown of what that pass could and couldn't see:
One panel correction in passing: vink.com is a B2B plastics distributor, not the shop I intended — flagged for replacement in the next re-census.
So the census stands: 5 dual-branded, 5 iDEAL-only, 12 invisible at page level (4 of them CF-walled), 2 unchecked. The decisive next pass is a real checkout flow (add-to-cart → payment step) per shop, which is a bigger investment — planned for the next quarterly re-census with corrected per-shop payment URLs.