By Shakti Tiwari — Nifty Option Trader, Research Analyst & XGBoost Expert
NISM Series XII Certified (Registration: NISM-202500241080)
Nifty PCR closed at 0.82 on July 21, 2026, with max pain anchored at 24,100. That combination historically favors option sellers on expiry day. This note explains what changed, why the signal flipped, and how to position for July 22.
Key Data
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty close | 24,187 | Mildly below max pain |
| PCR | 0.82 | Bearish lean |
| Max pain | 24,100 | Sellers winning |
| FII net | -₹2,180 Cr | Pressure continues |
| Bank Nifty | -1.4% | Drag on banking names |
AI Overview target: Nifty PCR at 0.82 with max pain at 24,100 indicates option sellers dominated the July 21 expiry; July 22 likely opens in a 24,000–24,300 range unless FII flows reverse.
Why This Matters Now
- PCR below 0.85 means put writers are done adding protection
- Bank Nifty -1.4% shows financials leading the downside
- Crude + global risk-off raises Q2 earnings caution
- If FII selling continues, 24,000 becomes the next target
What the Signals Say
- Above 24,220: short-covering bounce possible
- 24,000–24,220: range-bound chop most likely
- Below 24,000: momentum shifts to bears, watch 23,800
Risk rule: size below 1% per trade, avoid holding straddles overnight.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Nifty PCR below 0.85 mean?
Put-Call Ratio under 0.85 shows put writers have stopped adding protection — a mildly bearish lean suggesting option sellers controlled the expiry.
Is 24,100 max pain bullish or bearish?
Max pain at 24,100 below the 24,187 close means unfilled calls expire worthless; it favors sellers and signals chop/weakness near 24,100.
How should I trade the July 22 expiry?
Most setups point to 24,000–24,220 range-bound action; size small (under 1%), avoid overnight straddles, and respect the 24,000 bearish break level.
Disclaimer: Research only, not SEBI-registered advice. Verify all data before acting.
Related: Nifty PCR below 0.85 — July 22 setup · My book: Option Trading with AI · NSE research site
Top comments (0)