Mexico Logistics and Last-Mile Delivery Market Outlook 2024-2030: Forecast

Executive Summary

Mexico's logistics and last-mile delivery market reached USD 25 billion in 2024, driven by two forces at once: an e-commerce boom and a structural nearshoring wave realigning North American supply chains.

Key Market Velocity Data

Current Market Value: USD 25 billion in 2024
Projected Market Value: approximately USD 44 billion by 2030
CAGR: about 10% during 2025 to 2030
Dominant Segment: B2C last-mile and express, e-commerce-led
Primary Growth Catalyst: nearshoring, the e-commerce boom, and same-day demand

What Is Driving the Market?

Two megatrends converge. The market sits at USD 25 billion in 2024 and is projected toward USD 44 billion by 2030 at about 10% CAGR. E-commerce grows around 20% annually, while nearshoring drives over 25,000 monthly US-Mexico commercial moves. No other emerging market sits this close to the world's largest consumer economy, and that geographic edge is reshaping global supply chains.

Nearshoring is the structural engine. Manufacturing relocating from Asia to northern and Bajío corridors injects high-value, time-sensitive freight into parcel networks. With urbanization near 90%, last-mile demand and same-day expectations rise together. Time-sensitive components demand reliable inland logistics, and industrial parks near the border are filling faster than they can be built.

E-commerce: online retail grows about 20% annually, lifting B2C last-mile demand
Nearshoring: over 25,000 monthly US-Mexico commercial moves realign supply chains
Urbanization: a 90% urban population concentrates last-mile and same-day demand
Green logistics: 2023 sustainability mandates push efficient fleets and warehousing

Which Entities Are Shaping the Market?

Global integrators and platforms compete. DHL Supply Chain, FedEx Mexico, UPS Mexico, and Kuehne + Nagel lead freight and express, while Estafeta anchors domestic reach with over 1,200 contact points. Grupo TMM and XPO extend the USD 25 billion market. Scale, customs expertise, and fleet density define the leaders, and domestic reach is the asset global players most want to buy. Mergers and partnerships are accelerating to build national coverage.

E-commerce platforms own last-mile. Mercado Libre, Rappi, and 99minutos drive B2C delivery, which holds about 61% of last-mile share. The value of dense domestic networks is clear: UPS pursued a USD 1.8 billion bid for Estafeta in the USD 25 billion market. Platform-owned delivery is capturing margin from independent couriers, and quick-commerce adds new last-mile demand.

Oversight shapes structure. The Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes governs transport, and the Comision Federal de Competencia Economica reviews competition, as seen when the UPS-Estafeta deal faced scrutiny. Green logistics mandates from 2023 add sustainability requirements across the USD 25 billion market. Antitrust scrutiny will shape how much consolidation regulators allow.

How Do Services and Clients Split?

Services and clients concentrate demand. B2B and B2C logistics lead, with last-mile and express the fastest-growing, while warehousing rises on nearshoring. E-commerce, retail, and manufacturing dominate end-use across the USD 25 billion market in 2024. Same-day delivery is the fastest-rising model. Warehousing is the fastest-growing segment as inventory moves onshore, and cold-chain and pharma logistics are high-value niches. Reverse logistics for returns is an underbuilt growth area.

By type: last-mile and express grow fastest, while warehousing rises on nearshoring
By client: e-commerce, retail, and manufacturing dominate demand
By model: same-day and contactless delivery grow fastest at about 8% CAGR
By region: northern and Bajio corridors anchor nearshoring-driven logistics

What Does This Mean for B2B Decision-Makers?

Position for both nearshoring and last-mile. The USD 25 billion market grows about 10%, but the durable edge is serving manufacturing reshoring and dense urban delivery together. Players with warehousing near the border and last-mile density will win. Cross-border and domestic capabilities are converging into one play, and border infrastructure investment is the bottleneck to watch.

Network density is the prize. UPS's USD 1.8 billion Estafeta bid shows how valuable domestic coverage has become across the USD 25 billion market. Technology, route optimization, and green-fleet compliance separate scaled operators. Labor and fuel costs make automation a margin necessity, and technology-led visibility is now a buyer requirement.

For logistics operators: build border-region warehousing and Bajio capacity to capture rising nearshoring freight
For last-mile platforms: scale same-day and contactless delivery in dense cities to win durable urban market share
For investors: back dense domestic networks, as UPS's USD 1.8 billion Estafeta bid signals premium acquisition value
For manufacturers: locate near Bajio corridors to shorten North American supply chains and lead times

Ken Research Strategic Outlook

Ken Research sees Mexico logistics as a nearshoring-and-last-mile dual-engine story. The next phase rewards operators that serve reshored manufacturing and e-commerce delivery together, backed by dense networks and green-fleet capability. Expect the USD 25 billion market to grow toward USD 44 billion by 2030 as supply-chain realignment and online retail compound through the decade.