On September 24, a 5-minute Bitcoin Up or Down market was still offering Down at 1.1¢ near the end of the window.
The TWAP-aware EndCycle sniper bought 2,014 shares for $22.78. That same market later shows Redeem Down +$2,231.94.
The redeem is about $1 per share. It is the settlement of one window, not a strategy-level return.
The tape
Bitcoin Up or Down — September 24, 4:30AM–4:35AM ET:
| Clip | Price | Cash |
|---|---|---|
| 60 Down | 6.7¢ | -$4.01 |
| 158 Down | 5.2¢ | -$8.28 |
| 2,014 Down | 1.1¢ | -$22.78 |
| Redeem Down | $1 | +$2,231.94 |
Those three clips are 2,232 shares. The 1.1¢ print is almost all of the size. The other two clips are the same side, just higher in the book.
Where the edge is
Short-cycle binaries reprice into the close. One side becomes the favorite. The other side can still be offered near 1¢ if the book has not finished the move.
The trade is not a Bitcoin forecast. It is a question of price, size, and time left: is this token still cheap relative to the window, and is there size to lift?
TWAP-aware execution treats that price as a path. Size is taken in clips while the average entry is still inside the gap to $1. In this window the path reached 1.1¢, and that is where the size was.
What the account snapshot shows
Figures below are copied from the Polymarket profile and the analytics panel. They are UI snapshots, not a verified track record.
- All-time profit/loss on the profile: $7,444.99
- Win rate: 93.0% (491 wins, 37 losses)
- 528 positions, 1,255 trades
- Maker ratio: 0%. The account takes liquidity
- Realized PnL on the analytics panel: +$9.44K. Unrealized: -$2.57K
- Max drawdown on that panel: -$425.39
- Worst displayed trade: -$279.40 on a 5-minute ETH window
Most positions sit in the 80–100¢ band. The September 24 print is the other end of the same clock: a token still quoted near 1¢.
What this does not prove
A 1¢ token that does not settle pays zero. The clip above risked $22.78. The screenshot does not show the misses.
Late books are thin. A fill can be partial, the quote can be stale, and the underlying can disagree with the side the book is treating as cheap.
Strategy
TWAP-aware Polymarket EndCycle Sniper. Popular — available for sale.
- Profile: https://polymarket.com/@moneyforll?tab=activity
- Community: https://t.me/+SxEC7bVXYyphNzI5
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