After the Toncoin → Gram rebrand, the hottest question about the network’s future is: how does Telegram actually integrate Gram into its products? Durov hasn’t publicly disclosed, but the MTONGA context (4/7 steps done) and public 2024–2025 statements support reasoned hypotheses.
This piece is the systematic breakdown: what already works, what’s likely in MTONGA steps 5–7, what’s speculative. No hype, honest probability assessment.
!Disclaimer
Below is an analysis of possible integration directions, not financial forecasts. Durov may announce something entirely different. Don’t trade on these hypotheses.
Map of Telegram products where Gram could land
| Product | Current currency | Possible Gram integration | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telegram Stars | Stars (in-app) | Direct Stars ↔ Gram conversion | High (85%) |
| Telegram Premium | Fiat / Stars | Gram staking unlock, direct payment | High (70%) |
| Telegram Ads | Fiat / TON | Full switch to Gram payments | Medium (50%) |
| Mini Apps purchases | Stars / TON | Default Gram payments | High (80%) |
| Wallet by Telegram | USDT / TON | Auto-conversion fiat → Gram | Medium (40%) |
| Fragment (NFT) | TON | Continues in Gram | Status quo |
| Telegram Storage upgrade | Premium | Possible Gram tier | Low (20%) |
| Channel monetization (creator) | Stars | Gram payouts opt-in | Medium (50%) |
What already works
Wallet by Telegram
Since 2023, Wallet in Telegram (@wallet) supports:
- Custodial storage of TON (now GRAM)
- P2P purchase via card / bank transfer (RU, EU, other regions)
- USDT holding (on TON, not Tron)
- Stars ↔ TON conversion both directions
After the rebrand, the UI just shifts from “TON” to “GRAM”; functionality unchanged.
Stars ↔ TON conversion (since 2024)
Stars is Telegram’s in-app currency. Purchased via App Store / Google Play / web for fiat. Since 2024, Stars convert to TON (now Gram) via Wallet — already working.
Conversion rate: roughly 1 Star ≈ $0.012, minimum 100 Stars. Post-rebrand the UI just shows “1 Star ≈ 0.002 GRAM.”
Fragment.com
Marketplace for Telegram NFT usernames and numbers. Paid in TON (now Gram). After the rebrand, no functional changes, only UI label.
Mini App payments
Mini Apps in Telegram can accept payment two ways:
- Stars (via
payments.getStarsInvoiceAPI) - TON via TON Connect (smart-contract transaction)
After the rebrand, both keep working. Mini Apps receive TON (now GRAM) at their address.
What’s likely in MTONGA steps 5–7
Hypothesis A: Premium via Gram staking (probability 70%)
The cleanest, most powerful mechanic. Logic:
- Stake N Gram (e.g., 50 GRAM ≈ $250) via TON Connect
- Telegram Premium auto-enables while stake is active
- Staking through a special validator pool controlled by Telegram (rewards may be shared)
- Unstake → Premium turns off after 7 days
Why this is likely:
- Stake creates sticky Gram demand (doesn’t get sold)
- Apple/Google don’t take 30% from Premium (current state: 30% goes to App Store cut)
- Encourages crypto adoption via everyday Telegram use
What could prevent it:
- Regulatory risk (Premium staking could be classified as a security yield)
- Technically hard to make UX clean for a billion users
Hypothesis B: Telegram Ads — move to Gram (probability 50%)
Telegram Ads currently accepts payment in:
- Fiat via licensed brokers (for EU/UK advertisers)
- TON (now Gram) for direct advertisers
Possible step: unify everything to Gram. All advertisers pay in Gram directly, or fiat with auto-conversion to Gram. Plus possible revenue burn of Gram (part of revenue used for buyback + burn).
Why this is likely:
- Creates permanent Gram buy-pressure (Telegram’s ad market is estimated in the billions $/year)
- Makes Gram functionally needed for business operations
- Analogous to BNB in the Binance ecosystem
What could prevent it:
- Complexity for small advertisers who don’t want a crypto experience
- Regulatory pushback in the EU (MiCA + ad regulations)
Hypothesis C: Stars becomes a Gram-stable (probability 40%)
Speculative scenario: Stars becomes a wrapped/pegged derivative of Gram. E.g., 1 Star = 0.002 Gram at a fixed rate, backed by a Gram reserve.
Why this could work:
- Stars becomes “stablecoin inside Telegram,” removing complexity for non-crypto users
- A $-stable entry point into the Gram ecosystem
- Telegram holds a Gram reserve, creating durable demand
What could prevent it:
- Stars is currently designed as a pure in-app currency, not a stablecoin
- Backing requires collateral management, hard for Telegram operationally
- May be classified as e-money (requires licensing)
Hypothesis D: default Gram payments in Mini Apps (probability 80%)
Very likely: Telegram makes Gram the default currency for all Mini Apps. Today developers choose between Stars and TON. In the future — Gram becomes the first choice; Stars stays as backup for users without crypto.
Why this is likely:
- TON Connect is already a unique selling point of Telegram Mini Apps
- Mini App developers get direct payment without a 30% cut
- A natural continuation of the current trajectory
What could prevent it:
- Apple/Google may push back against “circumventing” their payment systems
- This is already happening but pressure may grow
What will NOT happen (our predictions)
A few popular crypto-Twitter hypotheses we consider unlikely:
Replacing Stars entirely
Stars remains as the regulated, fiat-bridgeable, easy-to-buy in-app currency. Gram remains as crypto-native, on-chain, fully user-owned. They’re complementary, not competitors.
Burn-buyback from Telegram revenue
Telegram hasn’t signaled a planned token-burn mechanic from its revenue. It would be regulatorily difficult (could classify Gram as a security).
Airdrop to current Premium subscribers
Unlikely for two reasons: (1) technically hard for millions of users, (2) regulatory risk (may be classified as unregistered token distribution).
Telegram launches its own L2
Possible, but not as part of MTONGA. If Telegram launches an L2, it would be a separate announcement, not part of the current 7 steps.
Timeline: what to expect when
Based on MTONGA pace (1 step per month):
- July 2026: likely step 5 — something Telegram-product-integration-related. Base hypothesis: Premium-staking or default Gram payments in Mini Apps.
- August 2026: step 6. Possibly scaling (L2 or additional shards under Telegram load).
- September–October 2026: step 7. Bitcoin bridge Teleport or AI-agent framework AgenticKit.
Detail in our MTONGA steps 5–7 forecast.
Influence on Gram price
If just one of the key integrations happens (Premium staking, default Stars conversion, Gram ad payments, Mini App default), it creates:
- Permanent buy pressure (Premium subscribers, advertisers, developers)
- Sticky stake (Premium stakers don’t trade)
- Velocity growth (millions of Mini App transactions daily)
That can toggle Gram’s long-term outlook from “mid-cap chain crypto” to “utility token of a leading messenger app” — a qualitatively different category.
But only if Telegram actually executes. Steps 1–4 show execution capability. Steps 5–7 = increment evidence.
Action items for Gram holders
If you hold Gram betting on these integrations:
- Don’t buy heavily on the announcement — most upside is in the current price (on step 5–7 expectations)
- Track concrete metrics: active Mini App users, Telegram Ad spending in Gram, Premium-staking participation (if launched)
- Diversify: even if all hypotheses hit, it’s a single chain bet — corporate dependence on Telegram is significant
- Don’t collateralize Gram for Premium ahead of launch — no guarantee the mechanism is exactly as we model
Further reading:
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