re: A Smart Service to Keep AWS Lambda Warm VIEW POST

FULL DISCUSSION
 

How do you guarantee the accuracy of prediction? Like false positive or false negative.

 

Hi Tony, in terms of time-series modeling, we would have a standard deviation and an interval of confidence.

Let's say the predicted value is 10 containers and the standard deviation (SD) is 1. If the data follows a normal distribution, we can assume with 99% of confidence that the real number of containers needed will fall between 2.5 SDs below or above the predicted value.

Thus, raising the prediction to 13 (10 + 2.5 = 12.5 > rounded to 13) should give us 99% confidence in the prediction.

Of course, we can't expect invocation histories to follow a normal distribution, so we need to test which distribution it more closely matches in order to adjust the confidence interval appropriately.

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