If you have ever hit reroll in Clover RPG hoping for Time magic, you know the feeling: a few quick rolls, no Time, and a growing suspicion that the game is somehow keeping score. It is not. Each roll is a fresh chance, and the numbers explain both the excitement and the frustration.
The chances, in one place
Here are the magic roll chances used in this article:
- Time: 1%
- Beast: 5%
- Lightning: 15%
- Shadow: 15%
- Wind: 20%
- Flame: 22%
- Light: 22%
Together, they add up to 100%. That means every roll must land on one of these seven outcomes, and Time is, by a clear margin, the rarest of them.
What a 1% chance really means
For a 1% outcome, the expected number of rolls is 1 divided by 0.01, which is 100 rolls. That is an average over a very large number of attempts, not a promise. You could get Time on your first roll, or you could still be waiting after 200 rolls. Past rolls do not make the next roll more likely, because each roll has the same 1% chance.
The chance of getting Time at least once grows steadily, but slowly at first. In 50 rolls, it is 1 - 0.99^50, about 39.5%. In 100 rolls, it rises to about 63.4%. In 200 rolls, it reaches about 86.6%. Even at 200 rolls, roughly one player in seven would still not have seen Time. That is not bad luck in a mysterious sense; it is exactly what a 1% chance looks like over a finite number of tries.
A useful comparison: Beast
Beast, at 5%, shows how quickly the picture changes when the chance is higher. Its expected number of rolls is 1 divided by 0.05, which is 20 rolls. The chance of getting Beast at least once within 20 rolls is about 64.2%. Beast is five times as likely as Time on any single roll, and its waiting time is far shorter on average. If Time feels distant, this comparison shows why. The target is simply much rarer.
Should you keep rolling?
That depends less on the math than on what you enjoy playing. According to the community wiki, every magic is viable, so rerolling for Time is optional rather than necessary. A roll you enjoy using, learning, and building around is a fine keep, even if it is not the rarest result on the list. Chasing a 1% outcome can be fun as a personal goal, but it can also turn a game into a grind if you set no limit for yourself.
A practical approach is to decide your stopping point before you start: a number of rolls, a time limit, or a simple rule such as keeping the first magic you genuinely like. Once you reach that point, stop and play. The math will not change while you take a break, and your next session will start with the same chances as before.
If you want to test other targets or roll counts for yourself, a free reroll odds calculator runs this same math without needing a spreadsheet. It is an unofficial fan-made tool, not affiliated with the game, and this article is likewise not affiliated with Clover RPG or its developers.
In short, Time magic is rare, but it is not impossible, and it is not owed to you after a certain number of rolls. Knowing that 100 rolls is only the average, and that 200 rolls still leaves about a 13.4% chance of missing, can make the decision to keep or stop a lot calmer. Luck may decide any single roll, but the math tells you what to expect from many of them.
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