Seasonal businesses face a specific challenge with AI Max: the AI's bidding models are trained on recent historical data, but seasonal peaks look dramatically different from the baseline. A campaign that ran steadily for 10 months doesn't have the peak data the AI needs to bid optimally for Black Friday, back-to-school, or holiday traffic.
How AI Max's Bidding Models Handle Seasonality
AI Max uses predictive bidding — the AI forecasts which auctions are likely to lead to conversions and bids accordingly. For seasonal businesses, this predictive model can lag behind actual demand changes:
In the ramp-up to a seasonal peak: The AI may underbid in the first few days of a seasonal surge because its model was built on non-peak data. It doesn't "know" a peak is coming until it starts observing peak-level conversion rates in real auctions.
During the peak itself: Once the AI observes high conversion rates, it adjusts bids upward. But the AI learns from recent data — so the first 3-5 days of a peak may have lower efficiency than days 10-14.
After the peak: The AI may overbid briefly after a peak ends (because its model still reflects peak-era conversion rates) then gradually readjust.
This pattern means seasonal AI Max campaigns have a systematic "learning lag" at the start and end of each season.
Seasonality Adjustments in Google Ads
Google Ads offers a specific feature for this: Seasonality Adjustments (in Tools > Bid strategies > Advanced controls > Seasonality adjustments). These let you tell the AI to expect a conversion rate change during a specific time window.
For example: "Between November 25 and November 30 (Black Friday week), expect conversion rates to be 150% of normal." The AI adjusts its bidding preemptively during the specified window rather than waiting to observe the surge.
How to calculate the adjustment: Look at your previous year's conversion rate during the same peak period vs. the weeks before. If your Black Friday conversion rate was 3x the October baseline, set a +200% adjustment (or 3x the baseline).
For campaigns affected by the June 2026 data deletion (https://yositeup.com/blog/google-ads-reporting-data-deleted-june-2026): if your previous peak period falls within the deleted data window, you don't have accurate historical peak data to base adjustments on. Use data from 2024 or earlier peaks as proxies, or use your GA4 data (which was not affected by the Google Ads data deletion) to estimate conversion rate uplift.
Seasonality Adjustments Work Differently in AI Max vs Smart Bidding
In standard campaigns using Smart Bidding (tROAS, tCPA), seasonality adjustments are a well-established feature. In AI Max, the adjustments interact with the AI's broader campaign management in more complex ways:
The adjustment influences the bidding component but not the query expansion component. During a peak with a seasonality adjustment applied, the AI may both bid more aggressively AND expand to broader queries (because it sees high conversion rates). Watch the Search Terms report during peak periods for query expansion drift.
If you're using AI Max for Shopping (https://yositeup.com/blog/google-ai-max-shopping-replacing-performance-max-2026) alongside seasonality adjustments, the AI may reallocate budget across channels during the adjustment period. Watch whether Shopping vs. Display vs. Search allocation shifts during the adjustment window.
Budget Planning for Peak Periods With AI Max
AI Max will attempt to spend toward its target within its budget. During peak periods:
Increase budget before the peak, not at the start of the peak. Budget increases above 20% restart the learning cycle. If you need to double your budget for Black Friday, start increasing the budget in increments (20% increases, 3-4 days apart) in the 2 weeks before Black Friday.
Set a campaign-level budget, not a shared budget. Shared budgets can be consumed by other campaigns; for seasonal AI Max campaigns, a dedicated budget ensures the AI has the full budget available during the peak.
Use Portfolio Bid Strategies with capped maximum CPCs if you're concerned about the AI overbidding during the peak ramp-up. This constrains how aggressively the AI can increase bids even when it observes high conversion rates.
DSA Migration and Seasonal AI Max Campaigns
When migrating seasonal DSA campaigns to AI Max for Search (https://yositeup.com/blog/google-ads-dsa-ai-max-migration-february-2027), the timing of the migration relative to your season matters:
Migrate outside peak season. The DSA migration to AI Max triggers a learning phase. If you migrate during your peak (e.g., November for retail), the AI Max campaign spends peak budget in learning mode — inefficiently.
Target migration during your off-season (at least 8 weeks before your peak), so the AI has time to build its model on real conversion data before the peak demand arrives.
July 2026 ToS and Seasonal Advertising
The July 2026 ToS (https://yositeup.com/blog/google-ads-tos-july-2026-ai-automation-what-changed) applies to AI Max during seasonal promotions. If AI Max's automated asset generation creates seasonal promotional messaging (e.g., "Black Friday Sale — Save 40%"), the asset must comply with promotion accuracy requirements. AI Max doesn't generate these assets autonomously — you upload them — but the AI mixes them at scale, so ensure any time-sensitive promotional assets are updated or paused after the promotion ends.
A paused asset prevents the AI from serving an expired "40% off Black Friday" message in January. Asset management is more important for seasonal businesses in AI Max than in standard campaigns because the AI may continue using outdated assets longer than you'd expect.
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