The bot is a focused directional player on Polymarket’s BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets.
Unlike convergence farmers who snipe 94–99¢ near-certain outcomes, this system operates in the coin-flip band (~45–55¢) with a calibrated edge that pushes resolved win rate to ~60.7%.
Here’s a technical breakdown based on the public README and observable behavior.
Core Strategy
For each active BTC 5m Up/Down slot:
- Generate a directional read using CEX lead-lag, flow, momentum, and time-in-slot signals (private alpha).
- If the edge clears threshold and ask is in the fair ~50¢ zone → taker buy the favored side in $50–$175 clips.
- Monitor conviction throughout the slot.
- Scratch (sell ~breakeven) low-conviction positions.
- Hold to resolution only high-conviction legs.
This hybrid of directional forecasting + active risk culling turns a near-50/50 market into a positive expectancy book.
Measured Performance (Public Sample)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Held-side win rate (resolved) | 60.7% |
| ROI on staked capital (sample) | ~+24.5% |
| Avg entry on held legs | ~0.50 |
| Trades in sample | ~5,000 |
| Buy:Sell ratio | ~73:27 (active scratches) |
The system spreads entries across the slot (median ~47s after open) to source liquidity without lifting the book too aggressively.
System Pipeline
The logical flow per slot:
- Signal Layer — Private micro-forecast for P(Up) over the next 5 minutes.
- Entry Layer — If |P(Up) - 0.5| clears threshold and ask is attractive → accumulate.
- Conviction Cull Layer — Re-score every 10–30s. Scratch decaying signals at ~breakeven.
- Resolution Layer — Redeem winning shares only.
This architecture avoids the fee drag of pure convergence farming while maintaining a real edge through better-than-random directional accuracy.
Key Technical Considerations for Implementation
- Latency & Fill Quality — Early-slot liquidity at ~50¢ is key. Aggressive caching and reactive WebSocket handling are essential.
- Scratch Logic — Implementing reliable breakeven exits requires deep order books and careful timing.
- Risk Management — Per-slot caps, global exposure limits, and drawdown circuit breakers are non-negotiable.
- Data Feeds — CEX tickers, Polymarket CLOB, Gamma API for slot metadata, and oracle resolution events.
Why This Archetype is Interesting
Most short-horizon crypto prediction markets are treated as noise. A well-calibrated directional system that can consistently beat 50/50 on the held side (while scratching weak tickets) represents a different — and potentially more sustainable — approach than pure volume farming.
The repo itself serves as proof of authorship and strategy documentation rather than a full open-source drop, which makes sense given the alpha in the signal.
Takeaways for Bot Builders
- Focus on signal quality over execution complexity.
- Active conviction management (scratching) can dramatically improve outcomes.
- Mid-band directional trading (~50¢) can be less fee-sensitive than late-game convergence.
- Public API samples + profile data provide enough transparency for verification without revealing core IP.
If you’re building prediction market automation, studying focused directional systems like this one is well worth your time.
What’s your preferred archetype on Polymarket — convergence farming, directional, or something else?
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
Top comments (2)
This is your Polymarket account?
Impressive PnL