One of my biggest struggles as a web developer is the pull between making an app that's as lightweight as possible and one that's as understandable...
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I don't think you need much more than a "baseline" of popularity to ensure bugs get fixed, new features get implemented etc.
When things are over-popular, there are plenty of problems with project scope creep etc. You don't always need the most popular things.
I agree. React and Vue are not the only options (just naming them because they seem the most popular), but you do want to make sure you don't pick an abandoned framework (backbone? I don't really know the state of it so I might be wrong here). Although huge communities and clear roadmaps often come with popularity, so I can't say that it also shouldn't be a criteria.
If your project will be useful, people would contribute it even if it's a single-file. And will help you to rewrite it to more suitable framework, if it would be necessary. The value goes first.
My response is best summarized as two of my own articles:
All The Cool Kids Are Doing It
Jason C. McDonald ・ Nov 22 '17 ・ 6 min read
Retraction of an Obituary
Jason C. McDonald ・ Dec 28 '18 ・ 8 min read
I'd say go with your gut. Having experience with a framework is more important than which framework. You could always start a side project in a different framework to show you can pick it up quickly.