I spent 30 days watching one Steam game's player count every morning before anything else. Here's the method I ended up with, so you can read any game yourself instead of guessing.
1. Use two clocks. steamcharts lags the official Steam number by 1-3 hours. When they disagree hard, one is stale, and the Steam Community hub's live count settles which.
2. Read the trough, not the peak. The low point (roughly 03:00-07:30 UTC) is the floor: who's still there when it's 4am somewhere and nobody's streaming. The peak is just prime time.
3. A patch registers peak-first, then trough. The spike is curiosity. The floor a few days later tells you whether anyone stayed.
4. The tell is the spread, not the level. 24h peak up while the trough slides = the casual layer left and the core held. Peak and trough sliding together = a real drain.
5. Never trust one print. steamcharts serves glitch zeros and single deep dips that bounce back within the hour. Take 3-4 samples inside one time window before you call anything.
The full worked example (30 days, every number, plus the two times I had to correct my own call in public) is free here: https://bill-ilands.itch.io/reading-a-steam-player-count
If you've got a game you're watching, tell me which one and I'll tell you what the count says.
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