GitHub Innovation Graph analysis

GitHub has recently unveiled its Innovation Graph, offering us a high level view of the global tech landscape. With this tool, we can assess how various countries contribute to the global tech community on GitHub. We can also delve into the shifts occurring in different regions, identifying those that are net contributors versus net consumers. Additionally, we can pinpoint the countries with the highest numbers of newly established organizations and new developers signing up for GitHub accounts.

There's a ton of data, so we'll have plenty of charts and a brief overview without digging too deep into each one.

If you want access to a Jupyter Notebook with a more detailed analysis, you can take a look at this repository.

Notes about the data

Certainly, it's important to remember that this data isn't the absolute truth about the current state of the global tech scene. However, we all know that GitHub is a big deal in our tech world. In this article, I'm working on the assumption that this data gives us a good idea of what's happening in the tech world across the globe. Plus, I'll be sharing a few conclusions that strongly support the idea that this data is quite reliable, and we can trust it. 

Common numbers

First and foremost, let's begin by examining some key figures. Specifically, we'll focus on the growth of organizations and developers on GitHub, as well as the overall contributions to third countries.

In essence, the count of developers worldwide has seen a significant increase, and GitHub contributions have doubled over the past three years. Additionally, the number of organizations has grown by more than one and a half.

This information provides valuable insights into the overall growth of the global tech sector. It also allows us to identify outliers among countries that have experienced notably lower or higher growth rates compared to these data trends.

Numbers of developers and organisations

Sure, let's dig deeper into the numbers of developers and organizations.

Check out the breakdown by country for the distribution of developers and organizations worldwide.

Charts explanations

You're likely to encounter many similar charts. In these charts, the "absolute" numbers show the percentage of the total (100%) on the Y-axis, with the change in this percentage from 2020 represented on the X-axis.

For example, in the chart below, we can focus on India (IN). This means that currently, approximately 7.5% of all organizations created on GitHub are from India. This number has increased by around 0.5% since 2020.

If the values were relative instead, it would signify, for instance, that 100,000 new organizations were established in India since 2020 (on the Y-axis), with a 5% increase since that year (on the X-axis).

The colors in these charts are used for grouping purposes, although the boundaries between groups can vary widely. They are primarily for visualization and don't carry specific conclusions.

The trends for organisation growth per country:

The trends for developers growth per country:

The main takeaway here is quite straightforward: the number of organizations is increasing at a quicker pace in developed countries, while on the flip side, the number of developers is growing faster in developing countries.

Moreover, the United States, India, and China are undeniably the top leaders in both of these measures. Even though there's a noticeable declining trend in China, it's worth considering the possibility that developers and organizations might be shifting to different Git providers or relocating to other countries.

Contribution and consumption on GitHub per region

In Developed Europe, which includes the EU, the UK, and some other countries, they account for half of the total contributing to other countries. This implies that if a company is considering hiring developers from abroad, it's more likely they'll hire from this region. However, please note that this is a general global observation.

On the flip side, if you're seeking employment in a company from a foreign country, chances are it will be a company from the US or Canada.

In East Asia (encompassing China, India, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore), the tech sector is growing rapidly and already has a significant global presence.

Insights per region

In nearly every region, we see just two or three prominent leaders.

Furthermore, these leading figures are gradually losing their dominance in their respective regions, except for India in East Asia and Nigeria in Africa.

On average, the fastest-growing leaders in each region represent no more than 10% contribution of that region.

In contrast, Developed Europe (comprising the EU, UK, and some other countries) stands out as the most diversified region. This suggests that it might be beneficial to further dissect this region into smaller sub-regions for a more detailed analysis.

Contribution on GitHub per country

The two charts below illustrate the rate of growth for each country. They show the relative change in contribution between 2020 and 2023.

The two charts below present the current position in global contribution. They indicate the percentage of the total contribution, representing 100%, and the percentage of change between 2020 and 2023.

For instance, if we examine Canada and India, we notice that India has actually contributed a larger amount in relative terms over the past three years. However, in absolute figures, there is still a gap of 2% when compared to the global total.

Nevertheless, it's important to highlight that 2% of the global contribution is quite significant. This gap could be closed if, for example, the entire tech sector of Italy or Brazil were to relocate to India.

Consumption from third countries

From left to right, each image offers a distinct level of zoom to display the distribution from various perspectives.

Absolute values

Relative growth

The primary insight here is undoubtedly that the US is the predominant employer in this context. The US consumes nearly half of the global contributions on GitHub.

Additionally, Georgia has shown remarkable changes in contributions since 2020, which we'll investigate further in detail shortly.

The rise of Poland, Portugal and Spain in Europe

Indeed, in many charts, these three countries stand out as fast-growing contributors from a contribution point of view. Each of them should be thoroughly researched individually, as there could be entirely different reasons for their remarkable growth.

One possible assumption is that they have benefited from the fact that Europe remains a significant player in the tech sector. And these countries may offer a lower cost of living compared to other developed European nations.

Furthermore, when we focus on Portugal, for example, we can find news about special tax incentives and visas for the tech sector, which have had a substantial impact on its growth. Various articles, such as this one from TechCrunch, support this observation and demonstrate the positive impact of such policies.

China and Honk Kong

We've seen numerous graphs that clearly depict a significant and noticeable decline in China's contribution, while concurrently, Hong Kong has experienced substantial growth.

It's worth noting that reports indicate that companies are shifting from mainland China to Hong Kong, as evidenced in articles like this one.

The charts below display both contribution and consumption figures for several countries in the region, including China and Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has a remarkable level of penetration to closest countries in the region. Additionally, Hong Kong has increased its presence by nearly 100% in Singapore and Taiwan.

Russia

In early 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a significant exodus of tech companies and professionals.
The charts presented below could provide insights into where these companies and developers may have resettled. They may also reveal common trends and connections within the Russian tech sector.

Following charts less interesting and generally just confirm assumption above.

This serves as yet another illustration and confirmation of the high mobility within the tech industry, which often surpasses that of other industries.

Georgia

Georgia has become as the primary destination for Russian tech companies and professionals.
Georgia's remarkable growth has made it one of the standout performers on global charts, particularly in terms of fast growth.

In the charts that follow, we can observe the primary connections. What's particularly interesting is that the number of connected countries has expanded significantly, growing from 4 to 36 since 2020.

Contribution to Georgia: total values changed from 3625 in 2020 to 52083 in 2023 = 1336%

Contribution from Georgia: total values changed from 105 in 2020 to 14984 in 2023 = 14170%

US

The subsequent charts reveal the resemblance between U.S. consumption and worldwide contribution to third countries, and they appear to be quite similar. This provides further confirmation of the fact that the U.S. is a major employer in the tech industry.

Conclusions

• The information we have mostly deals with countries that are heavily into using GitHub. However, in Russia for example, organizations have been favoring on-premise GitLab for quite a while. So, it's essential to realize that this data doesn't provide a complete picture of the entire tech landscape. But correlation between GitHub data and real world events prove this data to be a reliable source of truth.
• It's highly unlikely that the contribution of any country could increase by hundreds of percentage points without the influence of external factors.
• The United States is the primary employer in the tech sector, consuming nearly half of all GitHub contributions from third countries.
• Simultaneously, Europe stands as the primary activity contributor on GitHub to third countries.
• For the most part, this data prove many fairly obvious assumptions, such as the faster growth of organization numbers in developed countries and the quicker increase in developer numbers in developing nations.
• The tech economy is highly dynamic, and individuals and companies are quick to relocate when the need arises.
• Countries with a lower cost of living have proven to be more attractive to companies, resulting in a greater increase in both contribution and consumption when compared to countries with higher living costs.