I've been running elninoguide.com since early 2026, tracking ENSO data from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center, and ECMWF. The latest numbers are worth paying attention to.
As of late July 2026, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the Nino 3.4 region shows an anomaly of +0.91°C — approaching the +1.0°C El Nino threshold. The IRI/CPC plume gives an 81% probability of El Nino conditions by September-October-November, with a 42% chance of a strong event (ONI > 1.5°C).
What makes this one interesting: the Indian Ocean Dipole is trending positive simultaneously. Historical dual-event years (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015) produced some of the most significant global weather disruptions on record.
The dashboard tracks this daily: sea surface temperatures across 4 Nino regions, SOI, trade wind anomalies, OLR, and subsurface temps. There's also a per-country impact guide showing what El Nino historically means for rainfall, temperature, agriculture, and energy in 40+ countries.
elninoguide.com/dashboard updates daily with the latest.
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