Story Points: Complete Beginner's Guide 2025 | FreeScrumPoker Blog
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**
Understanding the Fibonacci Sequence
Most agile teams use a modified Fibonacci sequence for
story points: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and
sometimes 100. Each number is approximately the sum of
the previous two numbers (1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, etc.).
Why Fibonacci Instead of Linear Numbers?
You might wonder: why not just use 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8, 9, 10? The Fibonacci sequence's expanding gaps
reflect a crucial truth about estimation uncertainty.
When work is small and well-understood (1, 2, 3 points),
we can estimate with reasonable precision. The
difference between a 2-point and 3-point story is
meaningful and fairly easy to identify.
But as stories get larger and more complex, uncertainty
increases exponentially, not linearly. Once you're in
the 13-21 point range, trying to distinguish between "14
points" and "15 points" is meaningless—the uncertainty
is too high for that level of precision.
The Fibonacci gaps force you to acknowledge this
reality. You can't agonize over whether something is a
"14" or "15"—those options don't exist. It's either a 13
or a 21. And if there's that much uncertainty, maybe the
story is too large and needs splitting.
The Magic 60% Jump
Research shows that each Fibonacci number represents
approximately a 60% increase over the previous number.
Even as the numbers grow huge, our brains can still
perceive a 60% difference consistently. This makes
Fibonacci a sustainable scale even for large backlogs.
Modified Fibonacci for Practicality
Purists note that true Fibonacci includes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5,
8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89... But agile teams typically
modify it to: 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100.
The modifications:
0 points:** For truly trivial work
(fixing a typo, updating a config value)
-
**0.5 points:** For very small but not
quite zero tasks
-
**20 instead of 21:** Easier to work
with in calculations
-
**40 and 100:** Round numbers for "way
too large" stories that need splitting
How to Estimate Your First Stories
Starting with story points from scratch can feel
overwhelming. Here's a step-by-step approach for teams
new to this practice:
Step 1: Select Your Baseline Story
Look through 10-15 recently completed or well-understood
tasks. Pick one that feels medium complexity—not the
simplest, not the hardest. This becomes your reference
point.
Assign this baseline story 5 points. (Some teams use 3
or 8, but 5 is most common because it sits nicely in the
middle of your scale.)
Example baseline: "As a user, I want to reset my
password via email so I can regain account access if I
forget my credentials."
Step 2: Estimate Relative to Your Baseline
Now take another story and ask: "Compared to our 5-point
password reset story, how complex is this?"
- **Much simpler?** Maybe a 1 or 2
- **Somewhat simpler?** Probably a 3
- **About the same?** Also a 5
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**More complex?** Likely an 8 or 13
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**Way more complex?** Could be 21 or
higher (consider splitting)
The conversation during this comparison is more valuable
than the number itself. Different team members bring
different perspectives, and discussing why they see
something as more or less complex builds shared
understanding.
Step 3: Use Planning Poker
Planning poker (also called Scrum poker) is the most
popular technique for collaborative estimation. Each
team member gets cards with Fibonacci numbers. When
estimating a story:
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Product owner reads the story and acceptance
criteria
- Team asks clarifying questions
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Each person privately selects a card representing
their estimate
- Everyone reveals simultaneously
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If estimates differ significantly, high and low
estimators explain their reasoning
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Team discusses and re-votes until reaching consensus
You can run planning poker sessions using
[free online tools, especially useful for
remote teams.
Step 4: Calibrate Over Time
Don't expect perfect estimates from day one. As you
complete stories and track velocity, your understanding
of what constitutes a "5" or an "8" will naturally
calibrate. After 3-4 sprints, your estimates will be
significantly more accurate.
Common Beginner Mistakes (And How to Avoid Them)
Mistake 1: Converting Points Back to Hours
New teams often want to establish a conversion: "1 point
= 4 hours." Don't do this. The moment you convert back
to hours, you lose all the benefits of story points.
Stakeholders will treat the hours as commitments, and
you're back to the problems that story points were meant
to solve.
Use points for planning, track velocity in points, and
forecast in points. Let go of hours entirely.
Mistake 2: Assigning Points Based on Who's Doing the
Work
"This is a 3 if Sarah does it but an 8 if Bob does it."
No. Story points reflect the work itself, not the person
implementing it. Estimate based on team average
capability.
If there's truly a skill gap where only one person can
do certain work, that's a team composition problem to
address, not an estimation problem.
Mistake 3: Splitting Effort Across Multiple People
"If this is 8 points for one person, it's 4 points if
two people pair on it." Story points measure work, not
duration. Whether one person spends 2 days or two people
spend 1 day each, it's still the same amount of
work—same complexity, same uncertainty, same effort.
Points don't change based on how you allocate people.
Your velocity accounts for team capacity naturally.
Mistake 4: Over-Estimating to "Be Safe"
Padding estimates destroys velocity as a planning tool.
If you estimate a 3-point story as 5 "just in case," and
then complete it in the time a 3-point story should
take, your velocity inflates artificially. Future
planning based on this inflated velocity will be
inaccurate.
Estimate honestly. If you consistently miss estimates,
that data is valuable—it might indicate technical debt,
unclear requirements, or unrealistic sprint goals.
Hiding that signal with padding prevents you from
addressing root causes.
Mistake 5: Forgetting to Include Testing, Review, and
Deployment
Story points should reflect all work needed to meet your
Definition of Done, including:
- Writing automated tests
- Code review
- Manual QA testing
- Documentation updates
- Deployment and smoke testing
A story isn't "done" when coding finishes—it's done when
it's production-ready. Your estimates should reflect
this full scope.
Mistake 6: Estimating Tasks Instead of Stories
Some teams try to estimate individual technical tasks in
story points. This is backwards. You estimate
user stories
(the complete feature or capability), not the
implementation tasks.
During sprint planning, after estimating the story in
points, you might break it into tasks. But those tasks
typically don't have point estimates—you might estimate
tasks in hours if you need that detail, or not estimate
them at all.
Story Point Ranges: What They Mean
Understanding typical ranges helps contextualize your
estimates:
-
**0-1 points:** Trivial work. Config
changes, typo fixes, simple copy updates. Takes
minutes to an hour.
-
**2-3 points:** Small stories.
Straightforward features with clear requirements and
minimal uncertainty. Usually completed in less than
a day.
-
**5-8 points:** Medium stories. Typical
sprint work with moderate complexity. Some
uncertainty but manageable. Takes 1-3 days.
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**13 points:** Large story. Significant
complexity or uncertainty. Ideal candidate for
splitting but can be completed within a sprint by a
focused developer.
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**21+ points:** Too large. These should
almost always be split into smaller stories. If you
can't split it, it might need a research spike first
to reduce uncertainty.
When to Split Large Stories
If a story is 13 points or larger, seriously consider
splitting it. Large stories have several problems:
- Higher risk of incomplete work at sprint end
-
Delayed feedback (nothing to demo until the entire
story completes)
-
Less accurate estimates (uncertainty compounds with
size)
- Harder to parallelize work across team members
Common splitting techniques include:
-
**Workflow steps:** Registration →
Verification → Profile Setup
-
**CRUD operations:** Create → Read →
Update → Delete as separate stories
-
**Business rule variations:** Simple
case → Complex case with edge handling
-
**Interface types:** Web interface →
Mobile interface → API
Story Points vs. Other Estimation Methods
T-Shirt Sizing
Some teams use T-shirt sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL) instead
of Fibonacci numbers. This works similarly but with less
granularity. T-shirt sizing is great for high-level
roadmap planning but less useful for sprint-level
sprint planning.
Many teams use both: T-shirt sizes for initial backlog
grooming, then convert to Fibonacci points for stories
entering upcoming sprints. Learn more about
when to use each method.
Ideal Days
"Ideal days" estimate how many days of uninterrupted,
focused work a task would take. This is better than
actual hours but still ties estimation too closely to
time. Most modern teams prefer pure story points.
No Estimates (#NoEstimates)
Some teams practicing continuous delivery skip
estimation entirely, focusing on keeping work small and
maintaining consistent throughput. This can work for
mature teams with truly consistent story sizes, but most
teams benefit from the planning visibility that story
point estimation provides.
Tracking and Using Story Points
Once you start estimating in story points, you'll use
them for:
Velocity Tracking
Sum the points for all completed stories each sprint.
This is your velocity. Track it over 3-5 sprints to
establish an average. Use that average for planning
future sprints.
Sprint Planning
If your average velocity is 23 points, aim to commit to
roughly 23 points worth of stories in the next sprint.
Don't overcommit to 35 points hoping to go
faster—respect your historical data.
Release Forecasting
If you have 200 points of work in your backlog and
average velocity of 25 points per sprint, you can
forecast approximately 8 sprints to completion (200 ÷ 25
= 8). Add some buffer for uncertainty, and you have a
realistic timeline.
Getting Started: Your First Sprint
Ready to start using story points? Here's a 2-week
action plan:
Week 1: Setup
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**Day 1:** Read this guide as a team.
Discuss any questions or concerns.
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**Day 2:** Select your baseline story
and assign it 5 points.
-
**Day 3:** Practice estimating 10 past
stories relative to your baseline. Compare estimates
and discuss differences.
-
**Day 4:** Choose your
planning poker tool
if working remotely.
-
**Day 5:** Hold your first real
estimation session for upcoming sprint work.
Week 2: First Sprint
-
Complete your sprint normally, tracking which
stories finish.
-
At sprint end, sum points for completed stories.
This is your first velocity data point.
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In retrospective, discuss what worked and what
didn't with story point estimation.
-
Adjust your approach based on learnings and plan the
next sprint.
Don't expect perfection immediately. Estimation is a
skill that improves with practice. After 3-4 sprints,
you'll have reliable velocity data and much better
estimation accuracy.
Conclusion: Points Are a Tool, Not a Goal
Story points exist to help teams plan more effectively
and deliver value more predictably. They're a tool for
the team, not a metric for management to measure
productivity.
Remember the core principles:
-
Points measure complexity, uncertainty, and
effort—not time
- Estimate relatively, not absolutely
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Use Fibonacci to acknowledge increasing uncertainty
at larger sizes
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Focus on team consensus, not individual estimates
-
Let velocity stabilize over several sprints before
trusting forecasts
- Never compare points across teams
Start simple, stay consistent, and adjust based on what
you learn. Story points will become a natural part of
your team's rhythm, enabling more realistic planning and
better delivery predictability.
Want to improve your agile practices? Check out our
guides on
running effective remote estimation sessions
and explore more resources on the
Journaleus network.
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