The AI-related capital expenditure boom generated $500 billion of SaaS loans in private credit portfolios. The loans were as follows:
tuned for 20-30% annual revenue growth. Legacy SaaS is now growing in real terms at low single digit rates.
digits.
The mechanism is straightforward. AI agents reduce seat-based revenue at SaaS issuers. Customers renew at fewer seats.
Revenue declines arrive faster than customer counts. The loans, marked at par, have not yet reflected it.
Meanwhile, the PJM grid constraint means that 60% of announced data center builds may not commission on schedule. The supply chain companies whose loans sit in BDC portfolios miss their revenue forecasts.
Technical paper on the energy-infrastructure dimension:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20543628
Paper on the broader private credit cascade:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20558733
Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H4HMVSMR
— Djellal Djouad, CrossVol Research
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4911-1118](https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4911-1118)
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