The Question
What happens to soccer scorelines after the 87th minute? I wanted real data, not gut feeling.
The Data
I pulled 1,085 matches from StatsBomb's open dataset (41 competitions, 2014-2023) and filtered to tight games:
- 87th minute reached
- Total goals ≤ 2
- Margin ≤ 1 goal
The Result
79.3% of the time, the scoreline didn't change.
| Score at 87' | Held % | n |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 82.3% | 486 |
| 1-0 | 79.7% | 334 |
| 0-1 | 79.0% | 297 |
| 1-1 | 76.6% | 372 |
What This Means
The 1-1 case holds less often — both teams have motivation to push. The 0-0 holding 82% surprised me: even in a scoreless draw, most teams settle for it in the final three minutes.
My original 148-match manual sample gave 81.8%. Scaling to 1,085 matches brought it to 79.3% — exactly the regression you'd expect.
Next Steps
I'm building a full report covering how this pattern interacts with team rankings, competition level, and in-play timing. If you're curious about the methodology, the full dataset is from StatsBomb's open source repository.
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