The semifinals are finally here — 22nd July, 2025
This tournament has been full of surprises: top teams shaking, underdogs fighting back. Now only four teams remain — Spain, England, Germany, and Italy.
Let’s see what the last four matches (group stage + quarterfinal) tell us about their unique styles.
1. Quick Team Averages (4-Match Sample)
| Team | Goals | Shots | Shots on Target | xG | Big Chances | Possession % | Pass % | Yellow | Red |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4.0 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 74.3 | 88.8 | 0.5 | 0 |
| England | 3.25 | 17.8 | 5.75 | 2.92 | 5.0 | 61.5 | 81.5 | 0.75 | 0 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 17.0 | 4.25 | 2.09 | 2.75 | 54.8 | 75.8 | 1.75 | 0.5 |
| Italy | 1.25 | 14.3 | 5.25 | 1.61 | 2.0 | 41.5 | 76.8 | 1.5 | 0 |
Quick read:
- Spain = heavy possession and pressure.
- England = chance-driven attack.
- Germany = tough and disruptive.
- Italy = low-possession survival mode.
2. Team Stories
1) Spain — “Time on the ball is a weapon.”
- 24.5 shots, 8 on target, 4 goals per game: huge pressure + great finishing.
- 74% possession, 89% passing: total control.
- Slightly fewer big chances (4.0) than England, but high efficiency.
Key point: Can they control Germany’s strong press? The first 20 minutes will decide the tempo.
2) England — “Big chances break games open.”
- Big Chances 5.0 — best of all semifinalists.
- 3.25 goals, xG 2.92: strong creation and conversion.
- 61% possession, 82% passing: balance of patience and direct play.
Key point: How fast can they break through Italy’s deep defensive line?
3) Germany — “Tough, stubborn, and disruptive.”
- Lower scoring, but defensive activity is top: 61.5% tackles, 22.5 clearances, 10.25 interceptions.
- Discipline is risky: 1.75 yellows, 0.5 reds on average.
- xG 2.09: they do create, but need better finishing.
Key point: Can they break Spain’s possession without losing control to fouls?
4) Italy — “Low possession, high survival.”
- Only 41.5% possession, yet they keep games close.
- 24.75 clearances, 8 interceptions show their defensive wall.
- 1.25 goals, xG 1.61: depend on quick counters.
Key point: If England can’t score early, Italy might drag them into a slow game.
3. Let’s Compare with Graphs
When you look at the bar and radar charts, the patterns are crystal clear:
Spain = volume-focused
England = chance-based attack
Italy = defensive survival
Germany = pressing and disruption.
4. Fun Machine-Learning Predictions (Just for Fun!)
I tested a simple model (accuracy only ~57%, so don’t take it too seriously):
England vs Italy
- Random Forest: England win probability 0.58
- Logistic Regression: England win probability 0.54
Germany vs Spain
- Random Forest: Germany win probability 0.27
- Logistic Regression: Germany win probability 0.06
Final Thought
The numbers say England vs Italy is a close call, with England’s attacking chances clashing against Italy’s deep defense.
On the other side, Germany vs Spain looks heavily in Spain’s favor. Spain are like a fortress, with control, passing, and relentless pressing.
But can Germany’s physical press break through? If they fail to shake Spain’s build-up in the opening minutes, the match could tilt completely to Spain. Still, if Germany push with intensity and turn the game messy, they might be the only team that can challenge the “red wall.”
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
Tools: Python, pandas, matplotlib, Numpy, Machine Learning
Data Source: Flashscore
Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/weuro_semi_finals
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
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