Polymarket Traders Price Just 5.5% Odds of US Recession as Sovereign Yields Grind Higher

2026-11-04, FP360 — Polymarket's 'US recession by end of 2026' contract is trading at a mere 5.5% implied probability, with $3,074 in 24-hour volume, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 4.65% and the 2s10s curve steepens to +45 basis points. The crowd is betting the economy skirts a downturn, but the bond market's term premium is quietly repricing the risk.

The Signal: Prediction markets are dismissing recession risk while the bond market's term premium builds a quiet warning—watch for a convergence trade.

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Originally published on FINPULSE 360