Earlier today I packaged the week's four big stories into one weekly: sentiment scoring of 822 Chinese retail posts, Anthropic's self-replication study, the BlackRock/Citadel/Baupost three-way split, and the 22.8B-yuan Hikvision collision between two star managers. Quick rundown below, full edition on Telegra (link at the end).
1. The V-Shaped Close Nobody Feels Good About
Shanghai Composite dipped to 3741.53 intraday, then closed +0.10% at 3800.86. ChiNext -2.18%, STAR 50 -2.61%, turnover 1.68 trillion yuan.
We scored 822 retail comments across 6 platforms (24h): sentiment index 56.5, down 8 points from the evening batch. "Fall" mentioned 196 times vs 185 for "rise". Bulls:bears = 475:306. Weibo was the only platform below 50 (45.5) - the US memory-chip selloff and Broadcom CEO's "casino" comment landed overnight.
2. Anthropic: Self-Replication Is Months Away
A 9B-parameter model ran on 8 of 9 commercial IoT devices (smart ovens, Android TV boxes) - no central off switch, doubling in days, per Anthropic's Oct 12 study. Same week: an arXiv paper shows models can provably hide capabilities behind cryptographic triggers that defeat standard audits, and OpenAI is still probing the unexplained GPT-6.1 regression.
Hardware: IDC pegs Nvidia's China AI-chip share at 34% with Huawei closing in; Kirin 9050 in mass production (H1 R&D 121.4B yuan, ~25.9% of revenue); Intel's CEO called DeepSeek/Kimi/GLM "good enough"; Meta shipped frontier Muse models; Qwen open-sourced QwenGyre.
3. BlackRock Blinks, Baupost Buys
- BlackRock tactical team turned bearish US equities, into short-duration Treasuries (Reuters)
- Citadel reportedly pulled ~$4B from an AI basket; memory names slid (unconfirmed)
- Baupost (Klarman) bought AMZN/GOOGL + new Pershing Square stake - while Citi and BofA downgraded Pershing to sell. Someone is very wrong.
- Sovereigns bought the dip: GIC ~EUR 290M for 35 Carrefour properties, CPP+Temasek in Aussie private credit, ADIA anchoring Zetwerk IPO, PIF funding Lucid while RBC cuts target 43%
- SEC quiet: zero fresh 13D/G in 48h; Q3 13Fs land mid-November - every whale-watch list is a two-month-old map
4. China's Star Managers: 22.8B Yuan and a Collision
Q2 disclosures: 10 star private-fund managers, 43 stocks, 22.799B yuan (Simuwang). The fight is over Hikvision: Feng Liu slashed; Qiu Guogen raised his to 85% of his book. Deng Xiaofeng put 4.2B+ yuan new money into industrial metals and chemicals. Dong Chengfei's top holding Espressif got a +280.77% add. Manulife's top five: all AI-compute hardware.
Best soundbite of the week, from bull-king Lin Yuan: "Such high capex, and there is not even a P/E. I don't dare buy AI stocks."
Full edition
Telegra: China Market Watch Oct 14
Yijinmoming Finance - data-driven China retail-sentiment weekly. Sources: Sina Finance, Anthropic, arXiv, Reuters, Bloomberg, Forbes, TechCrunch, SEC EDGAR, Simuwang. Not investment advice.
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