The World Cup has just started, and I’m running a live trading challenge where I start with $500 and try to grow it as much as possible by trading football-related prediction markets.
The core idea is simple:
I’ll be actively trading on Polymarket, while also copy trading some of the most profitable wallets using a copy trading system called PolyCup.
What I’m Building
For this challenge, I created a brand-new account with $500 and connected it to:
- Polymarket trading account
- PolyCup copy trading system via Telegram
The goal is to combine:
- My own live discretionary trades
- Automated copy trading from high-performing wallets
This allows me to compare strategy vs “smart money” in real time.
Why Polymarket + Copy Trading?
I’m using Polymarket because it enables:
- Sports prediction markets (football / World Cup outcomes)
- Real-time liquidity and pricing
- Easy entry/exit on event-based trades
On top of that, I’m using PolyCup (a copy trading tool built around Polymarket wallets) to:
- Track profitable traders
- Copy trades automatically
- Backtest strategies before allocating capital
Strategy Overview
The challenge runs for 4 weeks and includes:
- Weekly update videos
- Live trade tracking via Telegram
- Portfolio updates and performance breakdowns
I’m starting conservatively to avoid overexposure early, then gradually scaling into higher-confidence positions.
Example Trades (Early Positions)
Here are some of the initial trades placed in the account:
1. Mexico vs South Africa
- $40 on Mexico to win (~70% implied probability)
- Thesis: home advantage + stronger squad depth + crowd support
2. Morocco to Win Group
- $30 position
- Thesis: strong unbeaten run + undervalued compared to Brazil
3. Ivory Coast to Win Group
- $20 position
- Thesis: underdog upside + favorable early fixtures
These are structured as medium-risk directional bets with potential for early exits if odds move favorably.
Copy Trading & Backtesting
One of the most powerful features I’m using is wallet backtesting.
Instead of blindly copying traders, I can simulate:
- Historical performance
- Win rate
- Portfolio growth over time
- Risk-adjusted returns
This helps identify whether a wallet is genuinely profitable or just lucky short-term.
Useful Trading Bot (GitHub)
For anyone interested in building or experimenting with automation on prediction markets, here is a useful open-source project:
[Polymarket Trading Bot (BTC/ETH/M Bot) GitHub]
Halil-Eksik
/
Poly-bot
polymarket bot polymarket trading bot polymarket arbitrage botpolymarket bot polymarket trading bot polymarket arbitrage bot polymarket bot polymarket trading bot polymarket arbitrage bot polymarket bot polymarket trading bot polymarket arbitrage bot polymarket bot polymarket trading bot polymarket arbitrage bot polymarket bot polymarket trading
Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot (BTC, ETH Momentum Arbitrage trading bot)
TypeScript bot for Polymarket CLOB V2 5-minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets. It monitors Chainlink strike/spot vs order books, enters momentum-aligned positions late in each epoch, optionally completes the opposite leg for a boxed pair, and manages exits with configurable risk rules.
You can check this bot pnl with this account.
https://polymarket.com/@9g9g99
BTC-ETH-Momentum-Arbitrage-Bot-9g9g99.mp4
Built with @polymarket/clob-client-v2 and Node.js 20+. See V2_MIGRATION.md for Polymarket exchange upgrade notes.
Features
- Dual-market confirmation — BTC and ETH must align before entries (reduces false signals)
-
Chainlink Data Streams — strike at epoch open + live spot for
spot_minus_strike -
High-frequency monitor — REST CLOB
/bookpolling (~150ms), merged btc/eth wave logs - Six strategy phases — buy1, buy2, buy3, buy4, risk1, risk2, risk3
- Paper trading — simulated fills without live CLOB orders
- Optional redeem — gasless redeem via Polymarket builder relayer after epoch end
- Deposit wallet…
This repo includes trading automation logic that can be adapted for:
- Market scanning
- Trade execution
- Strategy testing
YouTube Walkthrough
If you want a deeper explanation of how these systems work in practice, here’s a useful video:
Polymarket Trading Bot Tutorial
It covers setup and strategy ideas for automated prediction market trading.
My Channel (Live Updates)
I’ll be posting weekly updates, including:
- Portfolio performance
- Winning / losing trades
- Strategy changes
- Copy trading results
Follow along here:
Final Thoughts
This challenge is an experiment in combining:
- Human decision-making
- Prediction market inefficiencies
- Copy trading intelligence
The goal isn’t just to “bet on football,” but to understand whether structured trading + smart wallet replication can consistently outperform random market participation.
Each week I’ll be publishing results and refining the strategy based on performance.
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