—— Hidden Worries and Future Paths Behind BSC Chain Frenzy
I. Current Situation: The Paradox of BSC Chain Meme Project Outbreak and Market Polarization
Short - term Meme Project Frenzy
The surge of TST and CaptainBNB: Meme tokens on the BSC chain keep drawing speculative funds. For example, TST, a test token mentioned by CZ, saw its market value soar to $41 million due to community hype. CaptainBNB surged over 13,000% in six hours after its launch. These projects, relying on a "zero - value - backed + social media" model, have become the focus of retail investors.
Speculative logic prevails: Funds shift from mainstream tracks like Bitcoin and Layer 2 to meme coins, showing investors' short - term betting mindset during policy uncertainties.
The Reality Gap of Trump's Policies
The bubble and controversy of TRUMP coin: The Trump family's TRUMP coin once had a market value exceeding $12 billion, but was later accused of being a "veiled corruption tool". Melania Trump's "First Lady coin" siphoned off market funds, causing a sharp price drop.
Regulatory easing falls short of expectations: Despite Trump's promises to replace the SEC chairman and push for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, slow policy implementation has cooled the market's optimism about "deregulation".
II. Core Contradictions Behind the Sobering Market
Short - term Liquidity Release and Structural Imbalance
Limits of TGA - driven liquidity injection: The US Treasury's release of $150 - 250 billion in liquidity via the TGA account has temporarily boosted risky assets, but this can't sustain a long - term bull market.
"Precision reallocation" of funds: Institutional funds focus on Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT, while altcoin markets lack new funds. The meme boom is mostly a rotation of existing funds.
Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainties
Dual pressures of inflation and debt: Trump's protectionist policies raise supply chain costs, potentially pushing core inflation back to 2.8% - 3%, forcing the Fed to maintain high rates and dampening risk appetite.
Growing political risks: The Trump family's meme coin issuance raises compliance questions. An SEC investigation could trigger panic selling.
Unsustainability of the Meme Model
Zero - value backing and high volatility: Most BSC meme projects lack real - world use cases and rely on community hype. Once the hype fades (like TST being rejected for listing by Binance), prices can plummet by over 90%.
Rising regulatory risks: The US Congress is debating the legality of politician - issued tokens. Legislative restrictions could pose systemic risks to the meme sector.
III. Future Forecast: Polarization, Restructuring, and Long - term Opportunities
Intensified Market Polarization
Reinforced strategic position of Bitcoin: Institutions like Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by late 2025 due to US pension fund ETF inflows, becoming a key anti - inflation asset.
Meme track shake - out: Only a few meme projects (like those integrating AI or practical use cases) may survive; most will vanish due to liquidity droughts.
Policy - driven Structural Opportunities
Clarified regulatory framework: If Trump successfully pushes the FIT21 bill into law, compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (like Circle) will benefit, while grey - area projects face elimination.
Recovery of Layer 2 and DeFi: Following the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, tokens like ARB and OP could rebound 50% - 100% thanks to tech upgrades and ecosystem expansion.
Macro - liquidity Rebalancing
Shift in Fed Policy: If inflation drops below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, rate cut expectations could trigger a broad - based crypto rally, with Bitcoin possibly hitting $250,000 (Nexo's forecast).
Emerging market fund inflows: In a strong US dollar cycle, Latin American and Southeast Asian investors may increase crypto holdings to hedge against local currency depreciation, boosting demand for BTC, XRP, etc.
IV. Investor Strategy: Defense and Offense
Short - term Defensive Allocation
Leverage reduction: Keep contract leverage at 3 - 5x and avoid overnight holdings of meme coins.
Stablecoin holding: Keep 20% - 30% of funds in USDC or DAI to guard against black swan events.
Medium - to - long - term Offensive Directions
Bitcoin dollar - cost averaging: Build positions gradually in the $78,000 - $82,000 range, targeting $180,000 - $200,000 long - term.
Layer 2 leader布局: If OP and ARB retreat below $0.4 and $1.0 respectively, accumulate gradually to ride the ecosystem boom.
Risk Watchpoints
Trump policy variables: If he fails to deliver crypto - friendly policies, the market may correct 10% - 15%.
Meme project collapses: Monitor trading volumes and community activity closely. Set strict stop - losses (e.g., 20% below support levels).
Conclusion
The 2025 crypto market is caught between "Trumponomics" and the meme bubble. In the short term, the BSC frenzy can't mask policy and liquidity woes. Long - term, Bitcoin's scarcity and compliance progress remain central. Investors must stay rational amid the frenzy and seize restructuring opportunities in a polarized market.
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