As the curtain falls on the 2024–2025 Premier League season, an analysis of team performance based on win probability provides insight into the clubs most likely to dominate in future campaigns. This article uses empirical win rates, calculated from the number of matches won out of 38, to determine each team’s likelihood of winning.
How Win Probability Was Calculated
Win probability was derived using the formula:
Win Probability = Wins ÷ Matches Played
Each Premier League team played 38 matches this season. The number of victories per team was divided by 38 to compute a win rate (expressed as a decimal), representing their likelihood of winning a match.
Teams with the Highest Win Probabilities
1. Liverpool FC – 0.658
Liverpool emerged as the season’s most dominant side, winning 25 matches. Their high win probability of 65.8% highlights consistent performance, likely driven by tactical depth, squad fitness, and solid management.
2. Manchester City FC – 0.553
Manchester City followed with a 55.3% win rate (21 wins). While slightly below their usual standard, City remained a formidable side and continue to pose a serious title threat.
3. Arsenal FC, Chelsea FC & Newcastle United FC – 0.526
All three clubs secured 20 wins, translating to a 52.6% win probability.
- Arsenal’s youthful energy
- Chelsea’s tactical rebuilding
- Newcastle’s resurgence under Eddie Howe
Each contributed to strong campaigns.
4. Nottingham Forest FC & Aston Villa FC – 0.500
With 19 wins each, these two clubs hit a 50% win rate, suggesting they are now among the league’s upper mid-table performers.
Aston Villa, in particular, continued their rise with disciplined, attacking football.
Mid-Table Contenders
Clubs such as Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, and Bournemouth had win probabilities ranging from 0.395 to 0.421, showing competitiveness but room for growth.
Underperformers
At the bottom of the win probability table:
- Manchester United, West Ham, Everton, Tottenham — all posted a 0.289 win rate (11 wins), a surprising dip for clubs with top-six ambitions.
- Leicester City (0.158)
- Ipswich Town (0.105)
- Southampton (0.053)
These clubs struggled heavily, signaling potential relegation threats or serious structural issues.
Final Thoughts
While win probability does not account for draws or goal difference, it offers a clear view of consistent winners across the season.
Based on current form:
- Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal remain the most likely to win in future fixtures — barring transfers or managerial changes.
- Clubs like Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa are also worth watching, as their 50% win rate suggests growing strength.
- On the flip side, traditional powerhouses such as Manchester United and Tottenham may need major overhauls to return to form.
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