Each year, millions of teenage boys play basketball for their high school. From there, those who are good enough, go on to play and college. It's only the truly exceptional, that make it to the NBA. In fact, less than 4,500 men have ever played professional basketball in its 77 year history. But what's ever more fascinating is how the game has evolved as much in the last 7 years as it did in the previous 70.
The year is 1982, and the NBA Leader in 3 pointers is Don Buse of the Indiana Pacers. He scored a whopping 73 in 82 total games. For comparison, Steph Curry made 285 in only 64 games in the 2021-2022 NBA season. So what happened? Why did the NBA Leader in 3 pointers per game go from less than 1 per game to 4.5.
In this series, I'll be discussing how data analytics, and a few special players changed the game. We'll be taking a look at some basic formulas/code to explain the rules of the game and how to optimize your chances of winning from the eyes of a data scientist.
So what is a 3 point shot? Simply put, the 3 point shot is a shot attempt beyond the 3 point line on a basketball court. The idea for it is that because it is a more difficult shot than a traditional 2 point shot, it should be worth more if you make it. There are other shots called free throws that are worth 1 point per attempt, but for now, let's focus on the comparison of the 2 and 3 point shot.
Much of the credit for the recent evolution of basketball to beyond the 3-point line is credited to Steph Curry but this is a trend that has been happening gradually since its adoption by the NVA in the 1979-80 season. 10 years ago the NBA 3 point leader was Ryan Andersen of the Orlando Magic with 166 made in 61 games or 2.7 per game. It seems so simple right?
As this series continues we will further examine the data to see if there is a correlation between 3 pointers attempted/made and wins? In order to do that we will have to determine the values of the winner's relative to that of the opponents and compare this across random samples from both recent and passed years.
If there is a correlation, that could explain why NBA teams are shooting and making so many more 3 pointers each year. But what, if anything, would cause them to revert back to playing focusing more on the 2 point shot? We will examine at what percentage a player would need to make their 2 point shots and free throws in order to revert back from the current 3 point trend.
Credit all stats to landofbasketball.com
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