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Discussion on: Why you need to know about the Lindy effect, as a developer.

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kurisutofu profile image
kurisutofu

I'm confused because by that logic, everything not extinct the first years would live forever ... no?
And so, nothing would ever go extinct ...

Since it was alive for a year, I can expect it to be alive another year.
But then, after that second year, I can expect it to be alive another 2 years.
And then, another 4, and 8 etc ...

Then, if the important part is without extinction and it meant that something could go extinct any given time, then what's the point of the expectation?

Am I looking at it wrong?