I think this prediction is the software development equivalent of flying cars. Almost every science fiction contains flying cars, but that caters more to the human dream of flying than to the physics involved, which contains a simple truth: flying cars are a ludicrous waste of energy.
The same can be said about an AI that could be able to perform as is told in this prediction. It would suck up electrical power in amounts that would let bitcoin seem really energy-saving in comparison.
Why yes, we will certainly have AI in development, but it will be still confined to assisting the developer. Why? Because a developer is much more energy-efficient as any AI - and if our species plans to survive, we'd rather conserve as much energy as possible in order to keep climate change at bay. Otherwise, in 100 years, no human being will be alive to need software development at all.
I have had a thorough look and I'm still convinced that we're not going to be replaced rather than augmented. Yes, you can make it do simple tasks, but it takes a lot of trial and error to get working solutions for complex issues out of ChatGPT.
Perhaps it's a 500 year thought, but people have been slowly abstracting and simplifying development since the 1950s, and today developers can hackathon an application in a day, where it would take months or years for the same product 20 years prior.
I often find myself coding the same logic across different projects, with many dejavu moments.
There is a science behind breaking down a requirement and transforming it into code. It follows a straight path, which AIs can one day process for us.
Imagine having to add a feature within an existing codebase. You have to find spots to inject the new code.
AI wouldn't do that, it would rewrite the whole application from scratch with the new feature standardized.
Let me just ask one question: who develops the AI that takes over development?
You will probably answer: another AI.
However, at the end of the chain, there will still be human developers, because you need someone who sets the expectations, checks for hidden biases, reviews the output and so on.
You will never not need developers. Merely the tasks done by developers will change.
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I think this prediction is the software development equivalent of flying cars. Almost every science fiction contains flying cars, but that caters more to the human dream of flying than to the physics involved, which contains a simple truth: flying cars are a ludicrous waste of energy.
The same can be said about an AI that could be able to perform as is told in this prediction. It would suck up electrical power in amounts that would let bitcoin seem really energy-saving in comparison.
Why yes, we will certainly have AI in development, but it will be still confined to assisting the developer. Why? Because a developer is much more energy-efficient as any AI - and if our species plans to survive, we'd rather conserve as much energy as possible in order to keep climate change at bay. Otherwise, in 100 years, no human being will be alive to need software development at all.
Do you still believe this after seeing ChatGPT? This is just 3 years later.
I have had a thorough look and I'm still convinced that we're not going to be replaced rather than augmented. Yes, you can make it do simple tasks, but it takes a lot of trial and error to get working solutions for complex issues out of ChatGPT.
Perhaps it's a 500 year thought, but people have been slowly abstracting and simplifying development since the 1950s, and today developers can hackathon an application in a day, where it would take months or years for the same product 20 years prior.
I often find myself coding the same logic across different projects, with many dejavu moments.
There is a science behind breaking down a requirement and transforming it into code. It follows a straight path, which AIs can one day process for us.
Imagine having to add a feature within an existing codebase. You have to find spots to inject the new code.
AI wouldn't do that, it would rewrite the whole application from scratch with the new feature standardized.
Let me just ask one question: who develops the AI that takes over development?
You will probably answer: another AI.
However, at the end of the chain, there will still be human developers, because you need someone who sets the expectations, checks for hidden biases, reviews the output and so on.
You will never not need developers. Merely the tasks done by developers will change.