Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/fet/inflation by MrNasdog.
FET, the merged Artificial Superintelligence Alliance token, is hard-capped at 2.71B and fully minted, so it creates no new coins above that ceiling. About 6M FET of migration and team unlocks move already-minted supply into circulation over 90 days, while the Earn & Burn programme buys and burns roughly 9M FET — so the Pressure Framework reads about -0.13% net, roughly steady and slightly shrinking. Our supply monitor agrees, reading -0.41% realized.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending July 4 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads FET at about -0.13% net on the forward view — roughly steady, with the Earn & Burn just edging out the migration unlock drip on a hard-capped supply. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at -0.41%, versus the framework's -0.13% for the same window — a gap of about 0.28 percentage points, well inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap chip ships. Both reads tell the same story: FET is structurally capped, protocol inflation is zero, migration vesting is winding down, and the burn is small but real. FET is a quiet, hard-capped AI token sitting on the flat line between mild deflation and zero growth.
Sell pressure: where new FET comes from
Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is zero, and that is the structural heart of FET. The token is hard-capped at 2.71B FET, where total supply already equals max supply, so every FET that will ever exist has been minted. Staking rewards on the Fetch.ai chain — about 5.6% APY on the roughly 20% of FET that is staked — are paid from a pre-allocated reward reserve that already sits inside the cap, not from new issuance. Because nothing is minted above the ceiling, there is no continuous protocol inflation to book, which is unusual for a staking token.
Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is the only live sell-side flow, at about 6M FET over the next 90 days. Legacy AGIX holders keep converting to FET, and small team and foundation cliffs keep releasing, so already-minted locked coins move into circulation on a roughly monthly schedule; the next migration step lands on Jul 28 2026, with about 465.7M FET still locked overall. These are reclassifications of existing supply, not new mint, but they do add to the tradeable float, so the framework books them here. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is zero as a flow: the founders, foundation and future-release reserves inside that locked pool book no dated discretionary release. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to FET.
Buy pressure: where new FET goes
Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is the only active offset, at about 9M FET over 90 days. The Earn & Burn programme, launched in January 2026 with a first burn of about 5M FET, spends roughly 25% of ecosystem revenue — licensing, API usage and client onboarding fees — buying FET and burning it, on track for around 35M FET in its first year. Because the destination is a burn, those coins are gone for good, so the buyback counts cleanly on the buy side. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is carried at zero: the Fetch.ai chain has no separately quantified base-fee burn, so the Earn & Burn above is the only active burn. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying or new escrow announced in the window.
Foundation and overhang
FET's overhang is locked, not scheduled at the discretion of the team. About 465.7M FET remains locked — the gap between the roughly 2.25B circulating and the 2.71B capped total — and most of it is the remaining AGIX migration allocation plus the founders, foundation and future-release reserves. The migration portion drips into circulation on its cliff schedule and is captured in Sell #2; the founders and foundation reserves book no dated release and sit in Sell #3 at a flow of zero. The framework re-checks the locked-pool balances and the burn reports on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if any of those reserve balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.
How FET compares to other hard-capped tokens
FET belongs to the class of hard-capped tokens with no protocol inflation — closer to a fixed-supply asset than to an uncapped, continuous-emission L1. Unlike a staking chain that mints fresh rewards every block, FET pays staking yield from a reserve already counted inside its 2.71B cap, so its supply cannot grow past the ceiling. That puts it alongside exchange and utility tokens that pair a fixed cap with a fee-funded burn, rather than alongside inflationary proof-of-stake chains that dilute holders every block.
The contrast worth drawing is with tokens that burn aggressively enough to go firmly net-deflationary. FET's Earn & Burn is real but modest — about 9M FET a quarter against a 2.25B float — so it roughly cancels the migration unlocks rather than driving meaningful scarcity. For an inflation lens specifically, that means FET reads as flat to mildly shrinking: no new mint, a winding-down unlock tail, and a burn that just outpaces it. The supply story is decided by how the burn scales as the migration unlocks finish.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Watch the pace of the Earn & Burn — the size of each burn is the single number that decides whether FET tips more firmly deflationary as the unlock tail thins. Watch the migration unlock step on Jul 28 2026 and the ones behind it, since those are the whole of the sell side. Watch the 465.7M FET locked pool, especially the founders and foundation reserves, for any first sign of a discretionary release. And watch for the long-promised FET-to-ASI rebrand, which would not change supply but could shift how the merged tokenomics are reported.
Summary
FET is a hard-capped, non-inflationary AI token whose supply cannot grow past 2.71B, because every coin is already minted. With protocol inflation at zero, the only sell-side flow is about 6M FET of migration and team unlocks over 90 days, while the Earn & Burn buys and burns roughly 9M FET, leaving the framework at about -0.13% net. Our supply monitor reads -0.41% realized, so both views agree the supply is roughly steady and slightly shrinking. The key risk is the 465.7M FET locked pool of migration and reserve coins — but none of it books a dated discretionary release, and the cap is the firm ceiling on everything.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Fetch.ai (FET), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 4, 2026.
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