I've been thinking about a question lately:
What actually determines someone's output when they start using AI?
Many people assume AI directly boosts productivity. But reality is more nuanced.
Some people use AI and see massive improvements—faster execution, faster project delivery, expanded capabilities.
Others use AI daily, ask many questions, generate lots of content, look busy... but create nothing truly valuable.
So the question isn't "Can AI boost productivity?"
It's: What determines personal output in the AI era?
The Formula
I've tried to capture this in a rough formula:
P = D × A × C
Where:
- P = Production (personal output)
- D = Depth (domain expertise)
- A = AI Ability (how well you use AI)
- C = Compute (models, tools, resources)
Why Multiplication, Not Addition
The key insight is that these variables multiply, not add.
They don't substitute each other—they constrain each other:
- Strong depth but can't use AI? Your abilities stay locked.
- Great at AI but no domain expertise? You get plausible-sounding nonsense.
- Both skills but no resources? Complex tasks won't even start.
One weak variable drags down the entire result.
Depth Determines Your Ceiling
If I had to pick the most important variable, it's Depth.
AI is fundamentally an amplifier. It amplifies what you already have.
A trader using AI to write strategies can:
- Organize thoughts faster
- Gather information faster
- Test ideas faster
- Validate assumptions faster
A novice gets plausible-looking code they can't evaluate.
Answers can be generated. Judgment cannot be outsourced.
AI Ability Isn't Just Prompting
Real AI ability includes:
- Decomposing problems
- Structuring tasks
- Iterating with AI
- Verifying outputs
- Constraining AI (this is crucial!)
Without constraints, AI generates fluent-sounding fluff. The skill is organizing AI into your workflow, not just asking questions.
Resources Define Your Feasibility Space
Resources aren't just tokens. They include model capability, toolchain, automation systems.
Think of it like electricity—without enough power, machines don't run slow, they don't run at all.
AI Amplifies Gaps
Here's the uncomfortable truth:
AI won't close gaps between people. It will amplify them.
This is a multiplicative structure:
- Those with depth + AI skills + resources create outsized value
- Those without get left further behind
The "super-individual" era is here.
Bottom Line
AI-era output = Depth × AI Ability × Resources
The real scarcity isn't answers—it's:
- Asking the right questions
- Detecting flaws in AI output
- Deep thinking
- Judgment
Build what AI can't replace.
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